Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 29th June – 3rd July (US)
Monday 29th June
No noteworthy economic indicators
Tuesday 30th June
08:30 ET
Canadian GDP for April
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), published monthly by Statistics Canada, measures the total value of goods and services produced across the Canadian economy. Unlike the US quarterly release, Canada reports GDP on a monthly basis, making it one of the timeliest indicators of economic activity. The report provides insight into the performance of major sectors such as manufacturing, energy, construction, retail trade, and services, and is a key input for Bank of Canada policy decisions.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (March), the Canadian economy expanded modestly, driven by gains in the services sector and a rebound in goods-producing industries.
Service industries continued to support overall growth, while manufacturing and wholesale trade improved after earlier weakness. However, housing-related activity remained subdued as elevated borrowing costs continued to weigh on construction and real estate.
Overall, the report suggested the Canadian economy was growing at a modest pace, with resilient domestic demand offsetting ongoing weakness in interest rate sensitive sectors.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
A stronger-than-expected April GDP reading could support Canadian equities, particularly cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials, and materials, by reinforcing confidence in economic growth.
A weaker reading may weigh on stocks by increasing concerns that economic momentum is slowing.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A stronger GDP report would likely support the CAD, as firmer growth reduces expectations for near-term Bank of Canada easing.
A weaker report may pressure the CAD as markets price a more accommodative policy outlook.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
Stronger economic growth could push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and reduced odds of policy easing.
Weaker GDP would likely pull yields lower as investors price in softer economic activity and greater odds of future rate cuts.
Bank of Canada Policy
A solid GDP report would support a patient Bank of Canada stance by indicating the economy continues to absorb higher interest rates.
A weaker-than-expected reading, particularly if broad-based across sectors, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if growth continues to lose momentum.
10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for June
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) measures US households’ perceptions of current economic conditions and expectations for the next six months. The survey is split into the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index, with the latter often viewed as a leading indicator of economic momentum. As consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP, this release is closely watched for signals on demand and growth.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), consumer confidence improved modestly after several months of weakness, suggesting households had become somewhat more optimistic about the economic outlook.
The details were encouraging:
The Present Situation Index increased, reflecting continued strength in the labour market.
The Expectations Index also improved, though it remained below levels typically associated with sustained economic expansion.
Consumers remained concerned about inflation and the cost of living, but confidence in future business conditions and employment prospects improved.
Overall, the report suggested that while consumers remained cautious, confidence was beginning to stabilize following earlier declines.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected June reading, particularly if the Expectations Index improves further, could support equities, especially consumer discretionary and retail sectors, by reinforcing confidence in household spending.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, signaling softer consumer demand and increasing concerns about economic momentum.
US Dollar
Improving confidence would likely support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy.
A weaker reading may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish Federal Reserve outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger confidence can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker confidence would likely lead to lower yields as investors price in slower consumption and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
An improving confidence backdrop would support the Fed’s patient stance by indicating consumer demand remains resilient despite restrictive financial conditions.
A meaningful deterioration in confidence, particularly in the Expectations Index, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if it signals weaker spending ahead.
10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for May
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the number of unfilled job openings at the end of the month, along with hiring, quits, and separations. Job openings are a key gauge of labour demand, helping assess the balance between supply and demand in the labour market and the potential for wage and inflation pressures.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (April), job openings rose sharply to 7.6 million from 6.9 million in March, reversing the prior month’s decline and signaling a rebound in labour demand.
The details were more mixed beneath the headline:
Hiring declined, suggesting firms were posting more openings but filling fewer positions.
Quits edged lower, indicating workers remained cautious about changing jobs.
Layoffs remained low and broadly unchanged, reinforcing that businesses were still reluctant to reduce headcount.
Overall, the report pointed to a labour market that remained resilient but uneven, with stronger labour demand alongside subdued hiring activity.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If job openings remain elevated, equities may benefit as resilient labour demand supports consumer spending and earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected reading could weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals softer hiring demand.
US Dollar
A stronger JOLTS reading would likely support the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in job openings may push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm job openings report would support a patient or higher-for-longer Fed stance, particularly if labour demand remains strong and layoffs stay low.
A renewed decline in openings, especially if accompanied by weaker hiring and fewer quits, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour-market conditions continue to cool.
Wednesday 1st July
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for June
The ADP Employment Change report measures the monthly change in US private-sector payrolls using anonymized payroll data from ADP’s client base. While it does not always align perfectly with official Nonfarm Payrolls, it is closely watched as an early signal of labour-market momentum ahead of the government’s employment report.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), US private employment increased by 122,000, up from 105,000 in April, marking the strongest monthly gain in over a year and coming in above expectations. Hiring broadened across industries and employer sizes, with education and health services leading job creation.
The report showed:
Hiring became more broad-based than in recent months.
Small, medium, and large businesses all added jobs.
Annual pay growth for job stayers held at 4.4%, indicating wage pressures remained relatively stable.
Overall, the report suggested the labour market remained resilient, with hiring strengthening despite elevated interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected June print could support equities by reinforcing confidence in labour-market resilience and consumer spending.
A weaker reading may weigh on stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors, as it signals softer hiring momentum.
US Dollar
A strong ADP result would likely support the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A soft report may pressure the dollar, with markets leaning toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in employment growth could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and potentially stickier inflation pressures.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields, as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm ADP report would support a patient or higher-for-longer Fed stance, particularly if hiring remains broad-based.
A weaker reading would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, especially if it aligns with softer labour-market data elsewhere.
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI June Final
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI surveys purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector on output, new orders, employment, inventories, supplier delivery times, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. The final release incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary estimate, providing a more complete view of manufacturing-sector momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (June Preliminary), the Manufacturing PMI eased slightly but remained comfortably in expansion territory, indicating that factory activity continued to grow despite signs of moderating momentum.
The report showed:
Output and new orders remained in expansion, supported by resilient domestic demand.
Employment continued to improve modestly, though hiring remained cautious.
Input costs and selling prices stayed elevated, suggesting inflation pressures had not fully dissipated.
Business confidence remained positive, although firms continued to cite uncertainty around demand and trade conditions.
Overall, the preliminary data suggested the manufacturing sector remained resilient, with growth continuing at a healthy pace despite persistent cost pressures.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final PMI is revised higher, industrial and manufacturing-linked stocks could benefit as stronger activity reinforces confidence in economic growth.
A downward revision may weigh on cyclical sectors if it points to softer demand than initially reported.
US Dollar
A stronger final reading would likely support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar as markets reassess growth momentum.
US Government Bond Yields
An upward revision, particularly if accompanied by firm price pressures, could push yields higher as markets price stronger growth and stickier inflation.
A weaker reading would likely pull yields lower as investors price in softer economic activity.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm final PMI, especially if the prices component remains elevated, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
A weaker reading, particularly if new orders and employment soften, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path later in the year.
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June
The ISM Manufacturing PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the US manufacturing sector on new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. It is one of the most closely watched indicators of industrial activity and broader economic momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), the ISM Manufacturing PMI declined slightly but remained in expansion territory, indicating that manufacturing activity continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace.
The underlying details were mixed:
New orders eased, suggesting demand moderated after a strong start to the year.
Production remained in expansion, supported by resilient domestic activity.
Employment stayed relatively soft, reflecting cautious hiring by manufacturers.
Prices remained elevated, pointing to ongoing input cost pressures despite some easing in supply chain constraints.
Overall, the report suggested the manufacturing sector continued to expand, but momentum had moderated while inflation pressures remained a key theme.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the June PMI remains firm or moves higher, equities, particularly industrial and materials sectors, may benefit as manufacturing resilience supports earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected reading, especially if it moves closer to 50, could weigh on cyclical stocks and reinforce concerns about slowing economic momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger PMI reading would likely support the dollar, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy and reducing expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer print may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises, particularly if the prices component remains elevated, could push yields higher as markets price firmer growth and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker readings would likely lead to lower yields as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm PMI, especially with elevated prices, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
A weaker reading, particularly if new orders and employment soften further, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path later in the year.
Thursday 2nd July
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for June
The US Employment Situation report, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides the most comprehensive snapshot of labour market conditions. Key components include Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), measuring net job creation, the Unemployment Rate, reflecting labour market slack, and Average Hourly Earnings, which gauge wage growth and inflation pressure. It is one of the most market-moving economic releases each month.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), nonfarm payrolls increased by around 185,000, pointing to another month of solid job creation and reinforcing the resilience of the labour market despite restrictive monetary policy.
The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, indicating labour market conditions were continuing to normalize but remained historically healthy.
Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, suggesting wage growth remained moderate and continued to ease gradually from the stronger pace seen earlier in the cycle.
Overall, the report pointed to a labour market that remained resilient but gradually cooling, with steady hiring, stable unemployment, and moderating wage pressures.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected report, with solid payroll growth and firm wage gains, could support equities by reinforcing confidence in economic resilience and consumer spending. However, an excessively strong report could also weigh on rate-sensitive sectors if it pushes back expectations for Fed easing.
A weaker print may pressure stocks by signaling slowing economic momentum, although markets could also interpret softer labour data as increasing the likelihood of future rate cuts.
US Dollar
A robust jobs report would likely support the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer report may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises in payrolls or wage growth could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth and inflation expectations.
Downside surprises generally lead to lower yields as investors price in slower activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm labour report, particularly if wage growth remains sticky, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
A weaker report, especially if unemployment rises or wage growth slows further, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour market slack gradually builds.
Friday 3rd July
US Holiday [Independence Day]
US Exchanges Closed
No noteworthy economic indicators
