Morning Juice – US Session Prep (1st July)

Sentiment
Global equities started July on a more cautious footing as investors waited for remarks from Fed Chair Warsh, with markets increasingly leaning toward the possibility of another US rate hike.
US futures slipped, European stocks edged lower from record highs, Asian equities were little changed, and the dollar extended its recent gains while Treasury yields stayed broadly steady.

The main focus is Warsh’s appearance at Sintra, where markets will be looking for more clarity on the Fed’s policy path after his recent emphasis on restoring price stability helped lift the dollar and front-end yields.
Inflation and Thursday’s payrolls report are also central, with traders now assigning a meaningful chance of a Fed hike as soon as this month.
Meanwhile, Brent moved lower on signs that US-Iran negotiations are progressing, while in Europe, softer inflation has not stopped markets from still pricing further ECB tightening later this year.

Docket
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for June
Forecast: 120k | Prior: 122k | Range: 134k / 90k

09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI June Final
Forecast: 55.7 | Prior: 55.7 | Range: 56 / 55.2

10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June
Forecast: 53.8 | Prior: 54 | Range: 55 / 53

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -2.262M | Prior: -6.088M | Range: 1M / -7.852M

Speakers
09:00 ET 
Fed’s Chair Warsh, ECB’s President Lagarde, BoE’s Governor Bailey, and BoC’s Governor Macklem speak at the ECB forum on Central Banking in Sintra.
No text is expected, but there will be a Q&A.

10:00 ET
ECB’s President Lagarde delivers closing remarks at the ECB Forum in Sintra.

13:00 ET
Trump Attends Teddy Roosevelt Library Event

15:00 ET
Trump Remarks at Burning Hills Amphitheatre

Good luck!