Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 6th – 10th July (US)
Monday 6th July
09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI June Final
The S&P Global US Services PMI surveys purchasing managers across the services sector on business activity, new orders, employment, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. The final release incorporates additional survey responses beyond the preliminary estimate, providing a more complete view of service-sector momentum.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (June Preliminary), the Services PMI remained firmly in expansion territory, indicating the services sector continued to support overall economic growth.
The report showed:
Business activity remained resilient, supported by healthy domestic demand.
New orders continued to expand, though at a slightly slower pace than in May.
Employment increased modestly, with firms continuing to hire cautiously.
Input costs and selling prices remained elevated, highlighting persistent inflation pressures in labour-intensive industries.
Overall, the preliminary data suggested the services sector continued to expand at a healthy pace, although cost pressures remained a key challenge.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final PMI is revised higher, equities, particularly consumer discretionary, communication services, and financial sectors, may benefit as stronger services activity supports earnings expectations.
A downward revision could weigh on stocks if it signals softer demand across the largest part of the US economy.
US Dollar
A stronger final reading would likely support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy.
A weaker revision may pressure the dollar as markets reassess economic momentum.
US Government Bond Yields
An upward revision, particularly if accompanied by elevated price pressures, could push yields higher as markets price firmer growth and stickier inflation.
A weaker reading would likely pull yields lower as investors price in softer economic activity.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm final Services PMI, particularly if price pressures remain elevated, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
A weaker reading, especially if business activity and employment are revised lower, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as growth and inflation continue to moderate.
10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for June
The ISM Services PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the US services sector on business activity, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. As services account for the majority of US economic activity, this is one of the most important indicators of growth momentum and inflation pressures.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), the ISM Services PMI remained comfortably in expansion territory, indicating the services sector continued to grow at a healthy pace despite signs of moderating economic momentum.
The underlying details were constructive:
Business activity remained strong, supported by resilient domestic demand.
New orders continued to expand, signaling healthy forward demand.
Employment improved modestly, though hiring remained cautious.
Prices paid stayed elevated, suggesting cost pressures persisted despite broader progress on inflation.
Overall, the report pointed to a services sector that continued to underpin US economic growth, although inflation pressures remained an important theme.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the June PMI remains firm or moves higher, equities, particularly consumer-facing, financial, and communication services sectors, may benefit as resilient services activity supports earnings expectations.
A weaker-than-expected reading, especially if business activity and new orders soften, could weigh on stocks and reinforce concerns about slowing economic momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger PMI reading would likely support the dollar, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy and reducing expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer print may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Upside surprises, particularly if the prices component remains elevated, could push yields higher as markets price firmer growth and persistent inflation risks.
Weaker readings would likely lead to lower yields as investors price in softer activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A firm services PMI, especially if price pressures remain elevated, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
A weaker reading, particularly if business activity, new orders, and employment soften together, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as growth continues to moderate and inflation pressures ease.
Tuesday 7th July
08:30 ET
US Trade Balance for May
The US Trade Balance measures the monthly difference between exports and imports of goods and services. A trade deficit occurs when imports exceed exports, while a surplus indicates the opposite. The report is an important input for GDP calculations, currency flows, and assessments of global demand for US goods and services.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (April), the US trade deficit narrowed, reflecting a combination of stronger export growth and a moderation in imports.
Exports were supported by gains in industrial supplies, capital goods, and services, while imports eased following earlier strength in consumer goods and energy products. The improvement suggested that net exports were likely to provide less of a drag on GDP than in previous months.
Overall, the report pointed to an improving external balance, although the US continued to run a sizeable trade deficit.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the May trade deficit narrows more than expected, equities, particularly exporters, industrials, and manufacturing-related companies, may benefit as it signals firmer external demand or easing import pressures.
A wider-than-expected deficit could weigh on trade-sensitive sectors and reinforce concerns about softer global demand.
US Dollar
A smaller trade deficit would likely support the dollar by reflecting stronger external demand for US goods and services.
A wider deficit may pressure the dollar as weaker trade fundamentals reduce support from external flows.
US Government Bond Yields
An improving trade balance could push yields higher, as stronger net exports support overall economic growth.
A deteriorating balance would likely pull yields lower as investors price in weaker growth momentum.
Federal Reserve Policy
A narrowing trade deficit would modestly support the Fed’s patient stance by reinforcing the broader growth outlook.
A widening deficit, particularly if driven by weaker exports, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if it contributes to slowing economic activity.
Wednesday 8th July
No noteworthy economic indicators
Thursday 9th July
08:30 ET
US Existing Home Sales for June
Existing Home Sales, published monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), measure the annualized number of previously owned homes sold during the month. The report is a key indicator of housing-market activity and consumer demand, providing insight into the health of the broader economy. Because housing is highly sensitive to interest rates, the release is also closely watched for signals on the impact of monetary policy.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), existing home sales improved modestly, rebounding from April as buyer activity picked up despite mortgage rates remaining elevated.
The report showed:
Sales increased across several regions, led by gains in the South and Midwest.
Inventory continued to improve, giving buyers more choice than earlier in the year.
Home prices remained firm, reflecting persistent supply constraints despite softer affordability.
Overall, the data suggested the housing market was showing signs of stabilization, although higher borrowing costs continued to limit the pace of the recovery.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected June reading could support equities, particularly homebuilders, housing-related retailers, and financials, by signaling improving housing demand and consumer confidence.
A weaker reading may weigh on housing-sensitive sectors and reinforce concerns about slowing economic momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger housing report would likely support the dollar, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy.
A weaker report may pressure the dollar if it adds to evidence that higher interest rates are weighing on activity.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger home sales could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced odds of near-term policy easing.
Weaker sales would likely lead to lower yields as investors price in softer economic activity.
Federal Reserve Policy
A resilient housing market would support the Fed’s patient stance by suggesting restrictive policy is not significantly impairing economic activity.
Continued weakness in housing would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if softness becomes more widespread across interest rate sensitive sectors.
Friday 10th July
08:30 ET
Canadian Employment Change for June
The Employment Change report, published monthly by Statistics Canada, measures the net change in the number of employed persons across the economy, including both full-time and part-time jobs. It is a key indicator of labour market momentum and is released alongside the unemployment rate and wage data, making it critical for assessing economic conditions and Bank of Canada (BoC) policy expectations.
Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), employment rose modestly, reflecting continued resilience in the labour market despite slowing economic growth.
The report showed:
Job gains were concentrated in the services sector, while goods-producing industries were more mixed.
Full-time employment accounted for most of the increase, indicating healthy underlying job creation.
The unemployment rate remained elevated, suggesting labour market conditions continued to normalize as labour supply grew.
Wage growth remained firm, although it continued to ease gradually from earlier highs.
Overall, the report pointed to a labour market that remained resilient but was gradually cooling, with employment continuing to grow at a more sustainable pace.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
A stronger-than-expected June employment gain could support equities, particularly domestic and consumer-facing sectors, as firmer job growth underpins household spending and earnings expectations.
A weaker print may weigh on stocks by reinforcing concerns that economic momentum is slowing.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Robust job growth would likely support the CAD, as it reduces expectations for near-term Bank of Canada easing.
A softer employment report may pressure the CAD as markets price in a more accommodative policy outlook.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
Stronger employment data could push yields higher, reflecting improved growth expectations and potentially firmer wage-driven inflation pressures.
Weaker data would likely pull yields lower as investors anticipate softer economic conditions and increased odds of future rate cuts.
Bank of Canada Policy
A firm employment report would support a patient Bank of Canada stance by showing the labour market remains resilient despite restrictive policy.
A weak report, particularly if accompanied by a rise in unemployment and softer wage growth, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as labour market slack continues to build.
