Morning Juice – US Session Prep (14th July)

Sentiment
Treasuries traded mixed with front-end yields pushing higher as oil climbed to $86 per barrel after President Donald Trump reinstated a US blockade on Iranian ships. Money markets increased expectations for tighter policy, pricing a 41% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July, up from 34% on Friday.

Docket
8:30 ET
US CPI for June
US CPI YoY: Forecast 3.8% | Prior 4.2% | Range 4.2% / 3.6%
US Core CPI YoY: Forecast 2.8% | Prior 2.9% | Range 3%/ 2.8%
US Core CPI MoM: Forecast 0.2% | Prior 0.2% | Range 0.4%/ 0%
US CPI MoM: Forecast -0.1% | Prior 0.5% | Range 0.3% / -0.3%

Speaker & Events
10:00 ET
Fed’s Chair Warsh testifies at the House Financial Services Committee in the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report
Text: TBD, Q&A: Yes

11:15 ET
Trump meets Iraq’s PM al-Zaidi

12:40 ET
Fed’s Barr speaks on AI at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference – speech and fireside chat
Text and Q&A are expected

13:00 ET
Fed’s Goolsbee speaks in a fireside chat at the Kenosha Area Business Alliance Location
Text: TBD, Q&A: Yes with a moderator

13:30 ET
Fed’s Cook moderates discussion on consumers, AI, and financial inclusion at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference
Text: No, Q&A: Yes with a moderator

14:55 ET
Fed’s Bowman speaks on responsible innovation and financial inclusion via a pre-recorded video at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference
Text: Yes, Q&A: No

16:00 ET
US Naval Blockade on Iran Starts

16:00 ET
BoE’s Governor Bailey speaks at the annual Financial and Professional Services dinner at Mansion House
Text is expected

Good Luck!