Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 13th – 17th July (US)

Monday 13th July
No noteworthy economic indicators.

Tuesday 14th July
08:30 ET
US CPI for June
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures changes in prices paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. It is one of the most closely watched inflation indicators, shaping expectations for interest rates, financial conditions, and Federal Reserve policy. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is particularly important for assessing underlying inflation trends.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), inflation continued to moderate, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures were gradually easing despite remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Headline CPI was supported by softer energy prices, while core CPI remained relatively subdued, with shelter continuing to be the largest contributor to inflation but showing further signs of moderation. Goods inflation remained contained, helping offset persistent strength in some services categories.
Overall, the report suggested that disinflation remained on track, although progress toward the Fed’s inflation target continued to be gradual.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected June CPI print could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary, by strengthening expectations for future Fed easing.
A hotter-than-expected reading, especially if core inflation accelerates, may weigh on stocks as markets push back expectations for policy accommodation.
US Dollar
Stronger inflation data would likely support the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A softer CPI print may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected inflation would likely push yields higher, particularly at the front end of the curve, as markets reprice the expected path of interest rates.
Lower inflation readings would likely pull yields lower as investors price in greater odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
The key focus will be whether core services inflation, particularly shelter and other labour-intensive categories, continues to moderate.
A firm inflation report would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance, while softer core inflation would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path later in the year.

Wednesday 15th July
08:30 ET
US PPI for June
The Producer Price Index (PPI), published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures changes in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services. It is an upstream inflation indicator that provides insight into cost pressures facing businesses and the potential pass-through to consumers. Core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, is closely watched for underlying inflation trends.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), producer inflation remained relatively subdued, reinforcing the view that underlying cost pressures continued to ease despite some volatility in energy prices.
Headline PPI was supported by modest increases in goods prices, while core PPI remained contained, suggesting businesses were facing fewer broad-based cost pressures than earlier in the inflation cycle. Services inflation also continued to moderate, providing further evidence that upstream inflation was gradually cooling.
Overall, the report indicated that producer price pressures were continuing to normalize, supporting the broader disinflation narrative.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A cooler-than-expected June PPI print could support equities, particularly sectors sensitive to interest rates and input costs, by reinforcing expectations that inflation pressures continue to ease.
A hotter-than-expected reading may weigh on stocks by raising concerns about business margins and delaying expectations for Federal Reserve easing.
US Dollar
Stronger producer inflation would likely support the dollar, as it reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
A softer PPI report may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher-than-expected PPI could push yields higher, particularly if core measures accelerate and suggest renewed pipeline inflation pressures.
Lower readings would likely pull yields lower as investors price in easing inflation pressures and a greater likelihood of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Markets will focus on whether producer price pressures continue to moderate alongside consumer inflation.
A firm PPI report, especially in the core measures, would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
A softer report would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path, particularly if it aligns with cooling CPI and PCE inflation trends.

09:45 ET
BoC Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada interest rate decision sets the target for the overnight rate, which influences borrowing costs across the Canadian economy, including mortgages, consumer loans, business credit, and broader financial conditions. The accompanying rate statement explains how policymakers view inflation, growth, labour market conditions, and risks to the outlook, making it key for expectations around future Bank of Canada policy.

Summary of Last Report
At the previous meeting in June, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, maintaining the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.
The Bank noted that inflation had continued to ease overall, but underlying price pressures remained mixed. Policymakers also highlighted ongoing uncertainty surrounding global growth, energy markets, and US trade policy. While domestic demand had softened, the labour market remained relatively resilient, leading the BoC to emphasize that future policy decisions would remain data dependent.
Overall, the June meeting reinforced a cautious wait-and-see approach, with the Bank balancing easing inflation against persistent uncertainty over the growth outlook.

What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
A more dovish BoC statement, particularly one highlighting weaker growth or improving inflation, could support Canadian equities, especially rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, financials, and consumer discretionary.
A more hawkish tone, focused on inflation risks or stronger economic resilience, could weigh on stocks.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A hawkish hold or guidance suggesting rates may remain restrictive for longer would likely support the CAD.
A dovish statement or greater openness to future rate cuts may pressure the CAD as markets price a lower policy path.
Canadian Government Bond Yields
If the BoC emphasizes persistent inflation risks, yields may rise, particularly at the front end of the curve.
If policymakers place greater emphasis on slowing growth and easing inflation, yields may fall as markets increase expectations for future easing.
Bank of Canada Policy
The key focus will be whether recent data on inflation, employment, and economic activity provide enough confidence for the BoC to begin signalling future easing, or whether policymakers continue to emphasize patience. A cautious statement would reinforce a data-dependent approach, while softer language on inflation and growth would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path later in the year.

Thursday 16th July
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for June
The Retail Sales report, published monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures the change in total receipts at retail stores, food services, and online merchants. It is a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP, and is closely watched for signals on economic momentum and household demand. Markets also pay close attention to the Control Group measure, which feeds directly into GDP calculations and provides a cleaner read on underlying consumer spending trends.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), retail sales rose modestly, suggesting consumer spending remained resilient despite elevated interest rates and persistent inflation.
Beneath the surface:
Spending on online retail, restaurants, and general merchandise remained firm.
Auto sales improved after recent softness.
Gasoline station sales reflected changes in fuel prices rather than underlying demand.
The Control Group posted another solid gain, indicating healthy underlying consumption and providing support for Q2 GDP growth.
Overall, the report suggested that consumer spending remained a key pillar of the US economy, although households continued to become more selective in where they spent.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected June reading could support equities, particularly consumer discretionary, retail, and travel-related sectors, by reinforcing confidence in household demand and corporate earnings.
A weaker print may weigh on stocks, especially consumer-facing sectors, as it signals slowing spending momentum.
US Dollar
Firm retail sales data would likely support the dollar, as resilient consumption reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
A weak report may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish policy outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger sales could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and potentially more persistent inflation pressures.
Weaker sales would likely lead to lower yields as investors price in softer economic activity and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust retail sales would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance by indicating consumer demand remains resilient despite restrictive financial conditions.
A weak report, particularly if the Control Group disappoints, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path as consumption momentum slows.

Friday 17th July
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment & Inflation Expectations Survey July Prelim
The University of Michigan Sentiment Survey measures US consumer attitudes toward personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. It also includes 1-year and long-run inflation expectations, making it a key release for both growth and inflation signals. As one of the earliest monthly reads on consumer behavior, it can influence expectations for spending trends and Federal Reserve policy.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (June Final), consumer sentiment improved from May, suggesting households had become somewhat less pessimistic as inflation continued to moderate and concerns over the economic outlook eased.
Inflation expectations also moved lower:
1-year inflation expectations declined, indicating consumers expected price pressures to ease over the coming year.
Long-run inflation expectations also moderated, providing reassurance that inflation expectations remained relatively well anchored.
Overall, the report suggested that consumer confidence was beginning to recover, while inflation expectations continued to move in a direction more consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation objective.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If July preliminary sentiment continues to improve, equities, particularly consumer-facing sectors, may benefit as stronger confidence supports spending and corporate earnings.
A weaker reading, especially if accompanied by higher inflation expectations, could weigh on stocks by raising concerns over slower demand and stickier inflation.
US Dollar
A stronger sentiment reading would likely support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy.
A weaker survey may pressure the dollar, particularly if markets interpret it as evidence that consumer demand is softening.
US Government Bond Yields
If inflation expectations remain contained or ease further, yields may move lower as markets gain confidence that inflation continues to moderate.
If inflation expectations rise, particularly the long-run measure, yields could move higher as investors reassess the inflation outlook.
Federal Reserve Policy
The inflation expectations components will remain the primary focus for policymakers. Continued moderation would support the case for a more accommodative policy path over time. Conversely, a rebound in inflation expectations would reinforce a higher-for-longer stance, even if broader consumer sentiment remains subdued.