Morning Juice – US Session Prep (15th July)

Sentiment
Money markets now price just a 20% chance of a July Federal Reserve rate hike after softer-than-expected US inflation data, down from around 50% on Monday following a renewed escalation in Middle East tensions and a sharp rise in oil prices. The inflation report also helped European government bonds recover some earlier losses.

Docket
08:30 ET
US PPI for June
YoY – Forecast: 6.2% | Prior: 6.5% | Range: 6.8% / 5.6%
MoM – Forecast: 0% | Prior: 1.1% | Range: 0.7% / -0.6%
Core YoY – Forecast: 5.1% | Prior: 4.9% | Range: 5.3% /4.4%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.4% | Range: 0.6% / -0.1%

09:45 ET
Bank of Canada July Rate Decision & Rate Statement
The rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.25%

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -1.824M | Prior: 2.998M | Range: 2M / -3.648M

14:00 ET
Fed’s Beige Book

Speakers
08:45 ET
Fed’s Williams speaks at an event organized by Partnership for New York City.
Text: Yes. Moderated Q&A: Yes. Media Q&A: Yes.

10:00 ET
Fed’s Chair Warsh testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report
Text: Yes (repeat from yesterday). Q&A: Yes.

11:00 ET
Trump attends policy meeting

12:00 ET
ECB’s Nagel gives a speech on the euro in Stuttgart, Germany.

13:00 ET
Fed’s Cook speaks at the Exchequer Club luncheon on the economic outlook
Text: Yes. Q&A: Yes, moderator.

15:15 ET
Trump participates in a Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit

Good luck!