Morning Juice – US Session Prep (16th July)

Sentiment
Stocks moved more cautiously as investors questioned whether earnings can keep pushing the AI trade higher while uncertainty around the Middle East continues to cloud the broader backdrop.
S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.7%, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 dropped 0.5%.
Even a strong beat and higher sales outlook from TSMC was not enough to generate fresh upside for the sector that has driven most of this year’s gains.

Brent held above $84 a barrel after the US struck Iran for a fifth straight day and hit a sanctioned oil tanker near Iran’s main export terminal.
Treasuries weakened slightly, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.57%, while the dollar was little changed and gold eased.
In Seoul, chip-related volatility again hit the Kospi, with authorities temporarily halting new listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs after concerns they were amplifying swings.
The next key focus is US retail sales, which will test whether the American consumer is still strong after softer inflation data reduced expectations for Fed hikes earlier in the week.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for June
MoM – Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: 0.9% | Range: 2.5% / -0.4%
Core MoM – Forecast: -0.1% | Prior: 0.8% | Range: 2.4% / -0.8%

08:30 ET
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 217k | Prior: 215k | Range: 225k / 204k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.82M | Prior: 1.814M | Range: 1.85M / 1.8M

Speakers
12:30 ET
Fed’s Logan speaks in a conversation at the Houston branch of the Dallas Fed.
Text: Yes. Q&A: Yes, moderator and audience.

13:25 ET
Fed’s Schmid will speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Forum.
Text: Yes. Q&A: Yes

13:00 ET
White House Press Briefing with Press Sec. Leavitt

Earnings
16:05 ET
Netflix Q2 2026 Earnings
Est. EPS: $0.80
Est. Rev: $12.58B

Good luck!