Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 27th – 31st July (US)

Monday 27th July
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods June Prelim
The Durable Goods Orders report, published monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more, such as machinery, vehicles, and aircraft. It is a key indicator of business investment and manufacturing demand, with core measures such as orders excluding transportation and non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft closely watched for underlying investment momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), durable goods orders increased modestly, supported by stronger demand for transportation equipment and machinery. Excluding transportation, orders also posted a solid gain, suggesting underlying manufacturing demand remained resilient.
Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, continued to edge higher, indicating firms were still investing despite elevated borrowing costs and an uncertain economic backdrop.
Overall, the report suggested that business investment remained relatively healthy, with underlying demand continuing to support manufacturing activity.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected June report, particularly in core and capital goods orders, could support equities, especially industrials, machinery manufacturers, and capital goods companies, by signaling resilient business investment.
A weaker reading may weigh on cyclical sectors by reinforcing concerns that corporate spending is beginning to slow.
US Dollar
Upside surprises in durable goods, particularly excluding transportation, would likely support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in US economic resilience.
A softer report may pressure the dollar as weaker investment demand strengthens expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy path.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger orders could push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced odds of near-term policy easing.
Weaker readings would likely pull yields lower as investors price in softer economic activity.
Federal Reserve Policy
Firm durable goods and capital goods orders would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance by demonstrating that business investment remains resilient despite restrictive financial conditions.
A weak report, particularly if core capital goods orders contract, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if it signals slowing corporate investment.

Tuesday 28th July
10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for July
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) measures US households’ perceptions of current economic conditions and expectations for the next six months. The survey is split into the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index, with the latter often viewed as a leading indicator of economic momentum. As consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP, this release is closely watched for signals on demand and growth.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (June), consumer confidence improved for a second consecutive month, suggesting households had become more optimistic about the economic outlook following signs of easing inflation and a resilient labour market.
The underlying details were constructive:
The Present Situation Index increased, reflecting confidence in current labour market conditions.
The Expectations Index also improved, although it remained below levels typically associated with robust economic expansion.
Consumers remained concerned about the cost of living, but expectations for business conditions and employment prospects became more positive.
Overall, the report suggested that consumer confidence continued to recover, supporting expectations that household spending would remain resilient.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected July reading, particularly if the Expectations Index improves further, could support equities, especially consumer discretionary, retail, and travel-related sectors, by reinforcing confidence in household spending.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, signaling softer consumer demand and increasing concerns about economic momentum.
US Dollar
Improving confidence would likely support the dollar by reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy.
A weaker reading may pressure the dollar as markets lean toward a more dovish Federal Reserve outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger confidence can push yields higher, reflecting firmer growth expectations and reduced safe-haven demand.
Weaker confidence would likely lead to lower yields as investors price in slower consumption and increased odds of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
An improving confidence backdrop would support the Fed’s patient stance by indicating consumer demand remains resilient despite restrictive financial conditions.
A meaningful deterioration in confidence, particularly in the Expectations Index, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path if it signals weaker spending ahead.

Wednesday 29th July
14:00 ET
US Interest Rate Decision & Rate Statement
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the target range for the federal funds rate, the Federal Reserve’s primary monetary policy tool. Alongside the interest rate decision, the Fed releases its policy statement, which outlines its assessment of economic conditions, inflation, the labour market, and the balance of risks. While July does not include updated economic projections or a dot plot, the wording of the statement and Chair Warsh’s press conference remain key drivers of market expectations.

Summary of Last Report
At the previous meeting (June), the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, marking Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair. The decision was widely expected, but markets focused on changes to the Fed’s communication.
Key takeaways included:
The Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged.
The policy statement was notably shorter, with less forward guidance than in previous meetings, reflecting Warsh’s preference for a more data-dependent communication style.
The accompanying SEP showed policymakers remained divided on the appropriate path for interest rates, while Warsh himself did not submit an individual projection.
During his first press conference as Chair, Warsh stressed that future policy decisions would depend on incoming economic data, while emphasizing the Committee’s commitment to restoring price stability.
Overall, the June meeting signalled continuity in policy but a noticeable shift in communication, with the Fed providing less explicit forward guidance while maintaining a cautious, data-dependent approach.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Equities will focus on whether the Fed’s statement and Warsh’s comments lean more dovish or hawkish. Any indication that policymakers are becoming more confident in the inflation outlook could support stocks, particularly growth and technology sectors. Conversely, a more cautious tone that emphasizes lingering inflation risks may weigh on equities by reinforcing expectations that policy will remain restrictive for longer.
US Dollar
The dollar would likely strengthen if the Fed signals that it is in no rush to ease policy or highlights persistent inflation pressures. A more balanced or dovish tone that acknowledges further progress on inflation could pressure the dollar as markets increase expectations for future rate cuts.
US Government Bond Yields
Treasury yields, particularly at the front end of the curve, will be driven by changes in the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish statement or press conference would likely push yields higher, while a more dovish message could pull yields lower as investors price a more accommodative policy path.
Federal Reserve Policy
Without an SEP or dot plot, markets will focus primarily on:
Any changes to the policy statement, particularly around inflation, labour market conditions, and the balance of risks.
Whether Chair Warsh signals greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
Any hints about the conditions that would justify future policy easing.
The July meeting is therefore likely to be judged less by the interest rate decision itself and more by whether the Fed’s communication shifts expectations toward a higher-for-longer stance or a more accommodative policy path.

Thursday 30th July
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index & Consumer Spending for June
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), includes the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation alongside data on personal income and consumer spending. Markets pay particular attention to the Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy and is viewed as the best gauge of underlying inflation. The report also provides insight into the strength of household demand through changes in personal consumption expenditures.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (May), both inflation and consumer spending accelerated, reflecting resilient household demand despite restrictive monetary policy.
The report showed:
Headline PCE inflation rose 0.4% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year, while Core PCE increased 0.3% on the month and 3.4% annually, indicating underlying inflation remained above the Fed’s target.
Consumer spending increased 0.7%, with gains across both goods and services, while real consumer spending rose 0.3%, highlighting continued resilience in household demand.
Personal income also rose 0.7%, though the personal saving rate remained relatively low, suggesting consumers continued to draw on income growth to support spending.
Overall, the report suggested that consumer demand remained robust, while inflation pressures eased only gradually, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to policy.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A softer-than-expected Core PCE reading, particularly if accompanied by another solid increase in real consumer spending, would likely support equities by reinforcing the prospect of easing inflation without a significant slowdown in growth. Conversely, a hotter inflation print or weaker consumer spending could weigh on stocks by reviving concerns over either persistent inflation or slowing demand.
US Dollar
Higher-than-expected inflation, especially in the Core PCE measure, would likely support the dollar by reducing expectations for future policy easing. A softer inflation report or weaker spending data may pressure the dollar as markets price a more accommodative Federal Reserve outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
Treasury yields would likely rise if Core PCE remains sticky or consumer spending surprises to the upside, reinforcing expectations that policy will stay restrictive. Lower inflation and softer spending would likely pull yields lower as investors increase expectations for future easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve will place the greatest emphasis on Core PCE inflation, while also assessing whether consumer spending remains consistent with sustainable economic growth. A combination of easing inflation and moderating spending would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path. Conversely, persistent inflation or another strong spending report would support a higher-for-longer stance.

08:30 ET
US GDP Q2 Advanced Estimate
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced across the US economy and is the broadest measure of economic activity. The Advance Estimate, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is the first look at quarterly growth and is based on incomplete source data, meaning it is often revised in subsequent estimates. Markets also pay close attention to the report’s underlying components, including consumer spending, business investment, government spending, trade, and inventories, as well as the GDP price indexes.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (Q1 Third Estimate), the US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.1%, confirming that economic activity accelerated from the previous quarter despite some moderation in consumer spending.
The report showed:
Consumer spending remained the primary driver of growth, although it expanded at a slower pace than in late 2025.
Business investment was robust, particularly in equipment and intellectual property, highlighting continued corporate spending despite elevated interest rates.
Government spending and exports contributed positively, while stronger imports acted as a drag on headline GDP growth.
Inflation measures within the GDP report remained elevated, suggesting price pressures had eased only gradually.
Overall, the Q1 data suggested the US economy remained resilient, supported by healthy domestic demand and business investment despite restrictive monetary policy.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP reading, particularly if driven by consumer spending and business investment, would likely support equities by reinforcing confidence in corporate earnings and the broader economic outlook. A weaker print could weigh on cyclical sectors by raising concerns that growth is slowing.
US Dollar
Stronger economic growth would likely support the dollar by reinforcing expectations that the economy can withstand restrictive monetary policy. A weaker GDP report may pressure the dollar if markets begin pricing a more accommodative Federal Reserve outlook.
US Government Bond Yields
A solid GDP print could push Treasury yields higher, particularly if accompanied by firm domestic demand and sticky inflation measures. Conversely, softer growth would likely pull yields lower as investors increase expectations for future policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
While GDP is an important measure of economic momentum, policymakers will focus on the composition of growth rather than the headline figure alone. Strong consumer spending, resilient business investment, and persistent inflation pressures would support a higher-for-longer policy stance. A weaker report, particularly if accompanied by slowing domestic demand, would strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy path.

Friday 31st July
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations July Final
The University of Michigan Sentiment Survey measures US consumer attitudes toward personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. The final release updates the preliminary July estimate with additional survey responses collected later in the month. Markets also closely monitor the 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, as these influence expectations for consumer spending, wage growth, and Federal Reserve policy.

Summary of Last Report
In the previous report (July Preliminary), consumer sentiment improved to its highest level since February, as easing gasoline prices and moderating inflation boosted household confidence.
The report showed:
The headline sentiment index rose more than expected, with both current conditions and future expectations improving.
1-year inflation expectations declined, suggesting consumers expected price pressures to ease over the coming year.
Long-run inflation expectations remained stable, indicating inflation expectations continued to appear well anchored.
Overall, the preliminary report suggested that consumer confidence was beginning to recover, while inflation expectations continued to move in a direction more consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation objective.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the final July reading confirms or improves upon the preliminary estimate, equities, particularly consumer discretionary and retail sectors, could benefit as stronger confidence supports consumer spending. A downward revision to sentiment or an upward revision to inflation expectations could weigh on stocks by raising concerns over slower demand or a more restrictive Fed.
US Dollar
A stronger final sentiment reading and subdued inflation expectations would reinforce confidence in the resilience of the US economy and likely support the dollar. Conversely, a weaker report may pressure the dollar if it points to slowing consumer momentum.
US Government Bond Yields
Markets will pay particular attention to any revisions in the inflation expectations measures. Lower or unchanged expectations would likely support lower yields, while upward revisions, especially to the 5-year measure, could push yields higher as investors reassess the inflation outlook.
Federal Reserve Policy
Although the final release rarely produces major revisions, policymakers will closely monitor the inflation expectations components. Stable or lower expectations would support a more accommodative policy path over time. An upward revision, particularly in long-run expectations, would reinforce a higher-for-longer stance, even if consumer sentiment remains firm.