Morning Juice – US Session Prep (14th August)

Sentiment
Stocks were little changed while bond yields edged higher as renewed US economic pressure on Iran pushed oil prices up again. S&P 500 futures were flat, Europe’s Stoxx 600 slipped slightly, the US 10-year yield rose to 4.66%, and Brent climbed toward $88 a barrel. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s warning of unprecedented economic isolation for Iran and a continued blockade of its ports offset some of the optimism from the recovery in AI-linked stocks.

Attention now turns to US retail sales after softer inflation and PPI data prompted markets to reduce expectations for Fed hikes. Despite that easing in inflation pressure, the US sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield in 25 years, highlighting the premium investors are demanding for long-term Treasury supply. In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi extended its AI-driven rebound, rising more than 11% on the week as Samsung and SK Hynix posted strong gains.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for July
MoM – Forecast: 0.1% | Prior: 0.2% | Range: 0.7% / -0.5%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: -0.2% | Range: 1% / -0.4%

10:00 ET
University of Michigan August Prelim Survey
Sentiment – Forecast: 54.9 | Prior: 55.2 | Range: 57.2 / 51
1-Year Inflation – Forecast: 4.2% | Prior: 4.2% | Range: 4.6% / 4%
5-Year Inflation – Forecast: 3.3% | Prior: 3.3% | Range: 3.5% / 3.2%

Speakers
15:00 ET
Trump Delivers Remarks

Good luck, and have a good weekend!