Morning Juice – US Session Prep (2nd October)

Sentiment
A rebound in Treasuries helped lift US stocks after 10-year yields pulled back from their highest levels since 2002. The S&P 500 reversed an earlier decline that followed manufacturing data showing a sharp rise in raw-material prices, while oil remained elevated amid geopolitical risks and reports that the Pentagon is considering sending another aircraft carrier and 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East.

The bond recovery was supported by an unwinding of crowded positions, haven demand linked to France’s fiscal concerns, and more cautious Fed commentary. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson indicated policymakers may need more time to assess whether further tightening is necessary, echoing New York Fed President John Williams, who said there was no urgency to consider another hike after September’s increase.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for September
Nonfarm Payrolls – Forecast: 90k | Prior: 162k | Range: 180k / 35k
Unemployment Rate – Forecast: 4.1% | Prior: 4.1% | Range: 4.2% / 4%
Average Earnings YoY – Forecast: 3.1% | Prior: 3.1% | Range: 3.2% / 3%

10:00 ET
US Factory Orders for August
Forecast: 0.1% | Prior: 0.9% | Range: 0.7% / -0.2%

Speakers
10:00 ET
Fed’s Logan gives welcoming remarks at the Fifth Annual Workshop on the Macroeconomic Implications of Migration.
Text: Yes. Q&A: No.

10:30 ET
France’s Pres. Macron chairs a G7 Meeting on Energy [Tentative]

12:00 ET
Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks

15:35 ET
ECB’s Nagel speaks in Rostock, Germany.

Good luck, and have a good weekend!