Morning Juice – Europe Session Prep

Good Morning Traders! This Thursday we get UK GDP data.

Here is what to expect from today.

Sentiment

Australian unemployment reached a two-year high at the start of the year, reflecting the country’s cooling labour market and sending the AUD down as traders pulled forward expectations on an interest rate decrease.

Japan’s economy unexpectedly dipped into recession after declining for a second quarter due to anaemic domestic demand, causing some central bank observers to shift their wagers on when the nation’s zero interest rate policy will terminate.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr stated that the US central bank needs to see more data demonstrating inflation is returning to 2% before it begins decreasing interest rates.

According to Joachim Nagel, a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, history suggests that loosening monetary policy too soon is worse than doing it too late.

The unexpected fall in fourth-quarter GDP places Japan in a technical recession and raises serious concerns about whether the Bank of Japan will follow through on indications delivered in January indicating a speedy pullback from its present policy stance.

In Australia, falling labour demand drove the jobless rate to a two-year high in January, a trend that is expected to continue until 2024.

Traders are betting on additional currency depreciation and possible intervention by Japanese government, with open interest for near-dated yen futures contracts reaching a six-year peak.

Docket

02:00 ET
UK GDP YoY Prelim
Median Forecast 0.1% | Prior 0.3% | Range 0.6%/0.0%

UK GDP QoQ Prelim
Median Forecast -0.1% | Prior -0.1% | Range 0.1%/0.2%

UK GDP Estimate YoY
Median Forecast 0.3% | Prior 0.2%

UK GDP Estimate MoM
Median Forecast -0.2% | Prior 0.3% | Range 0.1%/-0.3%

UK GDP Estimate 3M/3M
Median Forecast -0.1% | Prior -0.2%

UK Manufacturing Production MoM
Median Forecast -0.1% | Prior 0.4% | Range 1.5%/-1.5%

04:00 ET
IEA Oil Market Report

Speakers

03:00 ET
ECB’s President Lagarde Speaks

03:30 ET
ECB’s de Cos Speaks

07:00 ET
ECB’s Lane Speaks

08:00 ET
BoE’s Greene Speaks

Good Luck today, Traders!