Morning Juice – Europe Session Prep

Good Morning Traders! This Thursday we get Swiss CPI, Euro-Area Serivces and Composite PMI, as well as the ECB meeting minutes.

Here is what to expect for the day.

Sentiment

The dollar’s recent decline has relieved pressure on regional stocks, which have been looking for a clear direction after posting their best first quarter since 2019. The dollar index stabilised after dropping the most in almost four weeks on Wednesday as price pressures in the US services industry eased.

Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed that the central bank will wait and watch before lowering borrowing prices. However, his belief that recent inflation data did not “materially change” the broader picture lent support to risk assets.

In recent days, traders have reduced their expectations for rate cuts, citing evidence of economic resiliency and a more cautious tone from Fed policymakers. This has raised questions about Powell and his colleagues’ ability to deliver on the central bank’s prediction of three rate cuts this year.

Treasuries remained stable after finishing broadly higher on Wednesday, following a small gain geared towards the front end of the curve. In Japan, the breakeven inflation rate for 10-year CPI-linked bonds jumped one basis point to a new high.

Docket

02:30 ET
Swiss CPI YoY
Median Forecast 1.3% | Prior 1.2% | Range 1.5%/1.0%

Swiss CPI MoM
Median Forecast 0.3% | Prior 0.6% | Range 0.4%/0.1%

03:45 ET
Italian Composite PMI
Median Forecast 52 | Prior 51.1 | Range 52.6/51.1

03:55 ET
German Services PMI Final
Median Forecast 49.8 | 49.8 | Range 50.0/49.8

German Composite PMI Final
Median Forecast 47.4 | Prior 47.4 | Range 47.5/47.4

04:30 ET
UK Services PMI Final
Median Forecast 53.4 | Prior 53.4 | Range 53.7/53.2

UK Composite PMI Final
Median Forecast 52.9 | Prior 52.9 | Range 53.1/52.7

07:30 ET
ECB Meeting Minutes

 

Good Luck today, Traders!