Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)
Hey, Traders!
For the April 15th week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the US Session, with a brief synopsis of what they represent and what to possibly expect from the markets in reaction.
Monday 15th April
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for March
US Retail Sales refers to the total amount of merchandise and services sold by retailers to consumers during a monthly period.
It’s a key economic indicator that provides insight into consumer spending behavior, which drives a significant portion of overall economic activity.
Retail sales encompass a wide range of goods and services, including clothing, electronics, automobiles, food and beverages, and more.
What to Expect
Increases in retail sales often indicate growing consumer confidence and a strengthening economy, while decreases may suggest consumer caution or an economic slowdown.
Higher than expected retail sales could indicate that the Fed has room to keep US interest rates higher for longer, which could cause weakness in US stocks and strength in the dollar, the inverse is also true.
Tuesday 16th April
08:30 ET
US Housing Starts for March
US Housing Starts refers to the number of new residential construction projects that have begun during a particular period.
It’s a crucial indicator of economic activity and reflects the health of the housing market.
Housing starts include the construction of single-family homes, multi-family units like apartments and condominiums, and residential buildings.
What to Expect
Rising housing starts typically indicate a growing economy, increased consumer confidence, and demand for housing.
Conversely, a decline in housing starts may signal economic weakness or a slowdown in the housing market.
Though the markets do not often react to this data, signs of a growing economy could reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer narrative on interest rates.
Canadian CPI for March
Canadian Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services.
It’s a key indicator of inflation and reflects changes in the cost of living for Canadians.
The CPI is divided into various categories, including food, shelter, transportation, and healthcare, among others.
What to Expect
Rising CPI indicates inflationary pressures, which could impact interest rates, consumer spending, and overall economic stability.
Higher than expected CPI could indicate that the BoC need to keep rates higher for longer, as the path back down to their inflation target may be bumpier than they thought.
This could cause strength in the Canadian dollar and weakness in Canadian stocks.
The inverse is also true.
09:15 ET
US Industrial Production for March
US Industrial Production measures the total output of the nation’s factories, mines, and utilities.
It provides valuable insight into the health of the manufacturing sector, which is a key component of overall economic activity.
Industrial production data includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities, giving a comprehensive view of industrial output.
What to Expect
Increases in industrial production typically indicate economic growth, while decreases may suggest economic contraction.
Though the markets do not often react to this data, signs of a strong economy could reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer narrative on interest rates.
Wednesday 17th April
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Crude Oil Inventories report provides information on the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms in the United States over the past week.
It is released by the Energy Information Administration and serves as a crucial indicator of supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.
Traders and investors monitor this report as it can influence crude oil prices and impact various sectors of the economy, including energy companies, transportation, and manufacturing.
What to Expect
Increases in crude oil inventories may indicate oversupply conditions, which could put downward pressure on oil prices.
Conversely, decreases in inventories may suggest tightening supply conditions and potentially support higher oil prices.
Thursday 18th April
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report provides data on the number of individuals who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week.
It serves as an indicator of the labor market’s health and economic activity, with higher numbers suggesting increased layoffs and economic instability.
Conversely, lower numbers indicate a stronger job market and economic growth.
Continued Jobless Claims, on the other hand, tracks the number of individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits.
It offers insights into the ongoing state of unemployment and the duration of joblessness among workers.
Rising continued claims may indicate persistent unemployment, while declining numbers suggest that individuals are returning to work or finding new employment opportunities.
What to Expect
If jobless claims come in higher than expected, it indicates a higher unemployment rate.
Fed officials have noted that a higher unemployment rate is consistent with their path back to 2% inflation.
Therefore, if jobless claims come in higher than expected, this could cause strength in US stocks and weakness in the dollar, as it would help show that the conditions for disinflation are being met.
US Existing Home Sales for March
US Existing Home Sales is an economic indicator that measures the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums, and co-ops that were sold during a given month.
It provides insights into the health of the housing market, consumer confidence, and overall economic activity.
What to Expect
Rising home sales often indicate a strong economy, while declining sales may suggest economic weakness or changing consumer sentiment.
Though the markets do not often react to this data, signs of a strong economy could reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer narrative on interest rates.
