Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (EU)
Hey, Traders!
For the June 18th week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the EU Session, with a brief synopsis of what they represent and what to possibly expect from the markets in reaction.
Tuesday 18th June
05:00 ET
German ZEW
Economic Sentiment
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is calculated from the results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey. The ZEW is followed closely as a precursor and predictor of the Ifo Sentiment Survey and as such is followed closely by market participants. The data is released around the middle of the month for the current month. The survey provides a measure of analysts’ view of current economic conditions as well as a gauge of expectations about the coming six months. The latter measure tends to have the larger market impact and reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. About 350 financial experts take part in the survey.
Current Conditions
This survey summarizes the net percentage of positive and negative responses regarding the expectations for economic growth in the next 6 months, as given by financial analysts from banks, insurance companies and large industrial enterprises. For example, if 50% believe that the economic situation will improve and 20% believe it will get worse, the result will be +30.
The survey deals with the markets of Germany, the USA, Japan, Great Britain, France, Italy and other EU countries.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Eurozone CPI
Inflation is an increase in the overall price of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets – and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
What to expect:
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Wednesday 19th June
02:00 ET
UK CPI
The consumer price index (CPI) is an average measure of the level of the prices of goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households in the UK. It is calculated using the same methodology developed by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency, for its harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP). The CPI is the Bank of England’s target inflation measure.
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the UK, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank’s inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall price level of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets – and your investments.
What to expect:
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Thursday 20th June
03:30 ET
Swiss Interest Rate
Swiss National Bank (SNB) governing board members come to a consensus on where to set the target range for the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
What to expect:
Could have an effect on businesses for the sudden change in the cost of credit on their corporate balance. Consumers could also be affected since the shifts in Monetary policy influence other short-term rates like Bank deposits, personal loans, credit cards, home equity loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. Higher rates might make banks more reluctant to borrow overnight funds, so might lend out less money or charge businesses and consumers a higher rate to offset the rates.
07:00 ET
BoE Interest Rate
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate.
What to expect:
Could have an effect on businesses for the sudden change in the cost of credit on their corporate balance. Consumers could also be affected since the shifts in Monetary policy influence other short-term rates like Bank deposits, personal loans, credit cards, home equity loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. Higher rates might make banks more reluctant to borrow overnight funds, so might lend out less money or charge businesses and consumers a higher rate to offset the rates.
Friday 21st June
02:00 ET
UK Retail Sales
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data include all internet business whose primary function is retailing and also cover internet sales by other British retailers, such as online sales by supermarkets, department stores and catalogue companies. Headline UK retail sales are reported in volume, not cash, terms but are available in both forms. The data are derived from a monthly survey of 5,000 businesses in Great Britain. The sample represents the whole retail sector and includes the 900 largest retailers and a representative panel of smaller businesses, including internet sales. Collectively, all of these businesses cover approximately 90% of the retail industry in terms of turnover.
What to expect:
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company’s quarterly or annual report.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Euro-Area PMI
Manufacturing:
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
Composite:
The Composite PMI Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in both sectors (manufacturing and services). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Services:
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP/EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP/EUR.
