As Several US Polls Move in Favour of Harris, the Dollar Declines – Asia Market Wrap

The Dollar plummeted as investors reversed their wagers on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, citing recent surveys showing Kamala Harris gaining ground. Oil increased after OPEC+ postponed an output increase.

The Dollar index fell the most in over two months, while the Mexican peso, which plummeted in the aftermath of Trump’s 2016 triumph, was the best-performing major currency. Treasury futures and Asian stocks rose.

The actions come after a Des Moines Register survey found Harris with a 47%-44% edge in Iowa, a state Trump has won in all of his previous campaigns. One aspect of the so-called Trump trade promotes higher Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar. Other polls, however, show the two candidates in a dead heat, with voters evenly divided both nationally and in key swing states.

In recent weeks, the Dollar index and 10-year Treasury rates rose to their highest levels since July, as investors increased their bets on Trump’s second term. There is concern that his stance for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs will increase the federal deficit and stoke inflation, hurting Treasuries.

European stock futures rose alongside their US counterparts following Wall Street’s advances on Friday, which included strong earnings from Amazon and Intel. Japanese markets are closed for a vacation, so there will be no Treasuries trading during Asian hours.