Morning Juice – US Session Prep
Good Morning Traders.
It is Wednesday the 27th of November. Here is what to look out for today.
Sentiment
US equities futures crept lower as traders absorbed Trump’s latest cabinet choices and looked ahead to a slew of economic data for signals on interest rate expectations.
Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 fell, and Treasuries rose, lowering the 10-year benchmark yield by 4 bps to 4.27% ahead of a batch of pre-Thanksgiving holiday US data, including the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator and an update on economic growth.
The Euro climbed to its highest level of the day as ECB’s Schnabel advised against reducing interest rates too aggressively.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi have identified the Euro as one of the most vulnerable to Trump’s tariff program.
Middle East tensions eased somewhat when President Joe Biden announced that Israel had secured a cease-fire agreement with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah following weeks of discussions mediated by the US.
Oil prices stabilized as signals that OPEC+ will postpone restarting some output countered the lessening of geopolitical risk following the cease-fire agreement.
Docket
08:30 ET
US GDP Q3 2nd Estimate
GDP QoQ – Median Forecast: 2.8% | Prior: 2.8% | Range: 3.3% / 2.7%
Price Index – Median Forecast: 1.8% | Prior: 1.8% | Range: 1.8% / 1.8%
Core PCE Prices – Median Forecast: 2.2% | Prior: 2.2% | Range: 2.2% / 2.1%
US Durable Goods October Prelim
Median Forecast: 0.5% | Prior: -0.7% | Range: 2.6% / -1%
Core Durable Goods
Median Forecast: 0.1% | Prior: 0.5% | Range: 0.5% / -0.8%
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial – Median Forecast: 215K | Prior: 213K | Range: 225K / 195K
Continued – Median Forecast: 1.893M | Prior: 1.908M | Range: 1.925M / 1.85M
10:00 ET
US PCE Price Index for October
YoY – Median Forecast: 2.3% | Prior: 2.1% | Range: 2.4% / 2.2%
MoM – Median Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: 0.2% | Range: 0.3% / 0.2%
Core YoY – Median Forecast: 2.8% | Prior: 2.7% | Range: 2.8% / 2.7%
Core MoM – Median Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3% | Range: 0.3% / 0.3%
US Spending for October
Consumer Spending – Median Forecast: 0.4% | Prior: 0.5% | Range: 0.5% / 0.2%
Personal Income – Median Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3% | Range: 0.6% / 0.1%
Personal Consumption – Median Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: 0.4% | Range: 0.3% / 0%
US sells $95 bln 4-Week Bills
10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Inventories
Median Forecast: -1M | Prior: 0.545M | Range: 1.6M / -2.23M
11:30 ET
US sells $7-Year Bid-to-Cover
Speakers
13:00 ET
ECB’s Lane delivers dinner remarks at a conference on Macroeconomic Modelling Frontiers for Research and Policy in Central Banks.
Good luck!
