Morning Juice – US Session Prep

Good Morning Traders.
It is Wednesday the 4th of December. Here is what to look out for today.

Sentiment
US equity futures pointed higher after the S&P 500 eked out its 55th record this year. Traders are looking toward Jerome Powell’s remarks for clues on the interest rates path. Powell’s speech and US data on services and manufacturing will draw attention later today as investors assess whether the Fed will ease in December. Traders are currently pricing in more than a 70% chance of a quarter-point cut from the Fed in December. Treasuries bear steepened and the dollar climbed against most Group-of-10 peers.

Docket
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change
Median Forecast: 158K, Prior: 233K, Range: 190K / 100K

09:45 ET
US S&P PMI
Services – Median Forecast: 57, Prior: 57, Range: 57.1 / 56.5
Composite – Median Forecast: 55.3, Prior: 55.3, Range: 55.8 / 55.1

10:00 ET
US ISM Service
PMI – Median Forecast: 55.6, Prior: 56, Range: 57 / 55

Employment – Median Forecast: 53, Prior: 53, Range: 53.8 / 51.2

US Factory Orders MoM
Median Forecast: 0.2%, Prior: -0.5%, Range: 1.3% / -0.2%

10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Median Forecast: -1.82M, Prior: -1.844M, Range: 1M / -3M

Speakers
08:30 ET
ECB’s Lagarde gives introductory statement and appears before Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

08:45 ET
Fed’s Musalem gives a keynote address at the College of Central Bankers Symposium. Text and Q&A expected.

09:00 ET
ECB’s Makhlouf speaks at the publication of the Central Banks second Financial Stability Review of 2024.
Fed’s Barkin to be interviewed at CNBC CFO Council Summit in Washington.

12:10 ET
ECB’s Nagel gives keynote speech on Monetary policy in times of uncertainty and structural challenges at the European Stability Mechanism in Luxembourg.

13:45 ET
Fed’s Powell speaks in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit. Q&A expected.