Morning Juice – US Session Prep
Morning, Traders!
It is Friday the 6th of December, here are some things to look out for today.
Sentiment
A cautious tone dominated markets ahead of a key US jobs report that could shed light on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
US equity futures edged lower.
The dollar’s modest gains have put it on track to rise for the ninth time in ten weeks.
Treasury yields edged higher. Oil prices fell for the third day in a row.
Economists estimate that US nonfarm payrolls increased by 220,000 in November, as hiring recovered from weather-related and strike disruptions.
It’s the final payrolls report before the Fed’s next interest-rate decision, and swaps trading puts the chances of a quarter-point cut later this month at around 65%.
Nonfarm Payrolls Prep – Read Here
France’s week of political turmoil was expected to end positively for markets. The country’s bonds outperformed their euro-zone counterparts after National Rally leader Marine Le Pen said that a budget could be delivered within weeks.
The euro remained steady.
The CAC 40 index increased by more than 1% for the seventh consecutive day, marking the longest winning streak in nearly ten months.
Today’s US labour market reading will have a significant impact on whether the S&P 500 can build on its 27% rally this year.
Excitement over artificial intelligence and optimism that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will benefit US markets have propelled the benchmark to its best year since 2019.
Docket
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for November
Nonfarm Payrolls – Median Forecast: 215K | Prior: 12K | Range: 275K / 155K
Unemployment Rate – Median Forecast: 4.1% | Prior: 4.1% | Range: 4.3% / 4%
Average Earnings YoY – Median Forecast: 3.9% | Prior: 4% | Range: 4% / 3.8%
Canadian Employment Data for November
Employment Change – Median Forecast: 25K | Prior: 14.5K | Range: 46.1K / 5K
Unemployment Rate – Median Forecast: 6.6% | Prior: 6.5% | Range: 6.7% / 6.4%
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Survey December Prelim
Sentiment – Median Forecast: 73.2 | Prior: 71.8 | Range: 76 / 70
1-Year Inflation – Median Forecast: 2.7% | Prior: 2.6% | Range: 2.7% / 2.6%
5-Year Inflation – Median Forecast: 3.1% | Prior: 3.2% | Range: 3.1% / 3%
Speakers
09:15 ET
Fed’s Bowman speaks in a moderated discussion at the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference.
No text is expected, but there will be a Q&A
10:30 ET
Fed’s Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat as part of the Chicago Fed’s Annual Economic Outlook Symposium.
No text is expected, but there will be a Q&A
12:00 ET
Fed’s Hammack gives a speech on the economic outlook.
Text and Q&A are both expected.
13:00 ET
Fed’s Daly speaks in a moderated conversation at an event hosted by Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.
No text is expected, but there will be a Q&A
Good luck!
