Morning Juice – US Session Prep

Morning, Traders!
It is Thursday the 19th of December, here are some things to look out for today.

Sentiment
US stocks are set for a partial recovery on Thursday, indicating that the selloff following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot was overdone. The yen fell as the Bank of Japan kept borrowing costs unchanged.

Futures contracts for the S&P 500 rose 0.4% after the US benchmark suffered its largest loss for a scheduled Fed decision day since 2001.
Nasdaq 100 contracts climbed 0.3%. Key indicators in Europe and Asia fell as equity markets caught up with post-Fed moves in the United States.

The Fed reduced the number of cuts it expects in 2025 to two, as Chair Powell stated that future easing would require new progress on inflation.
The reaction halted this year’s stellar rally in US stocks, with the S&P 500 still on track to gain more than 20% due to optimism about artificial intelligence and the economy’s prospects under a Trump administration.

Money markets are pricing in fewer than two quarter-point reductions for the entire year 2025, which is even lower than the Fed’s so-called dot plot from Wednesday.
In the options market linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, one large block trade executed Wednesday afternoon stands to benefit from the start of another hike cycle next year.

The dollar held steady after reaching its highest level since 2022 following the Fed meeting.
Long-term US Treasuries extended losses, with 10-year yields rising 2 basis points to 4.53%, their highest since May.

Docket
08:30 ET
US GDP Q3 Final
QoQ – Median Forecast: 2.8% | Prior: 2.8% | Range: 3.2% / 2.8%
GDP Price Index – Median Forecast: 1.9% | Prior: 1.9% | Range: 2% / 1.8%
Core PCE – Median Forecast: 2.1% | Prior: 2.1% | Range: 2.2% / 2.1%

US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Median Forecast: 230K | Prior: 242K | Range: 250K / 219K
Continued Claims – Median Forecast: 1.89M | Prior: 1.886M | Range: 1.9M / 1.872M

10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales for November
Median Forecast: 4.09M | Prior: 3.96M | Range:4.28M / 3.5M

11:30 ET
US sells $80 bln 4-Week Bills

13:00 ET
US sells $22 bln 5-Year TIPS

Good luck!