Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)

For the December 23rd week, here is a list of the major economic indicators released during the US Session.

Monday 23rd December
Canadian GDP for December
Canadian GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in Canada over a specific period.
It is reported quarterly and annually, with a monthly GDP indicator showing short-term economic trends.
GDP is a key indicator of the economy’s health, with growth suggesting economic expansion and contraction signaling a slowdown.
It is broken down by industry and expenditure, highlighting the contributions of sectors like manufacturing, energy, and services.
What to Expect
If GDP comes in higher than expected, we would expect to see strength in CAD and CA stocks, whereas if it comes in lower than expected, we would expect weakness in these assets.

10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for December
The US CB Consumer Confidence measures the optimism or pessimism of American consumers about the economy.
Published monthly by the Conference Board, it is based on surveys assessing views on current economic conditions and future expectations, including business, labor market, and income prospects.
Higher confidence typically indicates increased consumer spending, a key driver of the US economy, while lower confidence signals potential economic caution.
It also has a component on year-ahead inflation expectations from the survey respondents within the report.
What to Expect
If headline Consumer Confidence comes in higher than expected, we expect to see strength across the dollar and US stocks, as it will help fight against any lingering recession fears.
If it comes in lower than expected, we would expect weakness in these assets.
If the inflation component comes in higher than expected, this could cause some weakness in US stocks and strength in the dollar and bond yields, as traders may take it into account when pricing in the next US rate decision.
If the inflation expectations come in lower than expected, we could see some strength in US stocks and weakness in the dollar and bond yields.
Keep in mind that the markets do not often react to the inflation expectations component within this report.

Tuesday 24th December
Market Holiday (Early Close) – Christmas Eve
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods November Prelim
US Durable Goods Orders measure the dollar value of new orders placed with manufacturers for goods meant to last at least three years, such as appliances, vehicles, and machinery.
Released monthly by the Census Bureau, it is a key indicator of manufacturing activity and future economic performance.
Changes in durable goods orders can signal shifts in consumer and business investment confidence.
What to Expect
This release is unlikely to cause a market reaction.
However, if it comes in higher than expected, we could see some strength across US assets (dollar, bond yields and US stocks)
If it comes in lower than expected, we could see the opposite.

10:00 ET
US New Home Sales for November
US New Home Sales measures the annualized number of newly constructed single-family homes sold in a given month.
Released by the Census Bureau, it’s an important indicator of housing demand and economic health.
Rising new home sales suggest strong consumer confidence and economic growth, while a decline may signal economic slowdown or tighter lending conditions.
This data influences markets and provides insights into trends in the housing and construction sectors.
What to Expect
This data is unlikely to cause a market reaction.
Having said that, if New Home Sales are higher than expected, we would expect to see strength across the US assets (US stocks, dollar, and bond yields), as it would show signs of resilient housing demand, and therefore a strong consumer, which bolsters bets on strong economic growth.
If it were to come in lower than expected, we would expect weakness across the US assets.

Wednesday 25th December
Market Holiday – Christmas Day

Thursday 26th December
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims report tracks unemployment insurance claims to gauge the health of the job market. Initial claims measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, indicating new job losses.
Continued claims reflect the number of individuals who remain unemployed and are still receiving benefits after their initial filing.
Together, these metrics provide timely insights into labor market conditions and potential economic shifts.
What to Expect
With employment in focus at the moment, this report has been garnering a lot of market attention.
A higher jobless claims number, indicating higher unemployment, would be likely to cause weakness across the US assets (dollar, stocks, and yields), as it feeds into the narrative of a hard landing/broader economic slowdown for the US economy as we come out of the tightening cycle.
A lower jobless claims number, indicating lower unemployment, would be likely to cause strength across the US assets, as it reassures the markets that the US economy may be able to exit the tightening cycle and enter the easing cycle without a recession/broader economic slowdown.

11:00 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, released by the Energy Information Administration, measures the weekly change in the amount of crude oil held in US commercial storage facilities.
It’s a key indicator for energy markets, as it reflects the balance between oil supply and demand.
What to Expect
An increase in inventories suggests lower demand or higher production, often putting downward pressure on oil prices, while a decrease can indicate higher demand or reduced production, typically pushing prices up.