Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 27th – 31st October (US)
Note: US Government data may be affected if the Government shutdown is ongoing
Monday 27th October
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods September Prelim
[Release schedule may be affected by US Government Shutdown]
The Durable Goods Orders report measures the monthly change in the total value of new orders placed with US manufacturers for durable goods — items meant to last three years or more, such as vehicles, machinery, and appliances. It’s a key indicator of manufacturing activity, business investment, and future economic growth momentum.
Summary of Last Report (August)
Headline: +2.9% MoM, rebounding from a −2.8% decline in July.
Excluding Transportation: +0.4% MoM.
Excluding Defence: +1.9% MoM.
Key Drivers: Strong gains in transportation equipment, especially aircraft, supported the rebound.
Takeaway: The sharp turnaround suggested a pickup in business confidence and underlying manufacturing demand after a soft summer period.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher-than-expected durable goods orders could boost equities, particularly in industrial and cyclical sectors, as stronger business investment signals economic resilience.
Lower-than-expected data may weigh on stocks, reflecting weaker demand and potential slowdown concerns.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected print may support the dollar as markets price in firmer economic momentum and possibly tighter Fed policy.
A softer-than-expected reading could weaken the dollar as expectations shift toward slower growth and a more dovish policy stance.
US Government Bonds
Stronger data may push yields higher (prices lower) as investors anticipate sustained growth and reduced odds of near-term rate cuts.
Weaker data could see yields fall (prices rise) as demand for safe-haven assets increases and rate-cut expectations firm up.
Federal Reserve Policy
A higher-than-expected result could reinforce a hawkish bias, with the Fed maintaining restrictive policy to balance growth and inflation risks.
A lower-than-expected reading might strengthen the case for a more dovish approach, particularly if broader data show slowing business activity.
Tuesday 28th October
10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for October
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for the U.S. measures the sentiment of U.S. consumers regarding the economy, their personal financial situations, and short-term economic prospects. It is a forward-looking gauge of consumer attitudes and spending potential, which makes it an important indicator for economic growth and policy-watchers.
Summary of Last Report (September)
Headline: 94.2 (down from 97.8 in August).
Key Sub-Indices: The Present Situation Index dropped significantly; the Expectations Index also declined.
Key Drivers: Consumer views of current business and labour market conditions weakened; inflation and job-availability concerns rose.
Takeaway: Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since April, signalling elevated economic anxiety and softer prospects for household spending.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher-than-expected confidence could lift equities broadly, especially consumer-discretionary and retail sectors, as a reading above consensus suggests stronger consumer spending ahead. Lower-than-expected confidence may pressure stocks, signalling weakening household demand and increasing recession risk.
US Dollar
If confidence prints higher than expected, the dollar may strengthen as markets infer firmer consumer demand and potential upside to growth and inflation. If the reading comes in below expectations, the dollar may weaken as growth concerns mount and the risk-premium on U.S. assets increases.
US Government Bonds
A stronger-than-expected result could push yields higher (prices lower) as investors anticipate higher consumption, faster growth and less likelihood of near-term monetary easing. A weaker-than-expected print may lead yields lower (prices higher) as safe-haven demand increases and markets anticipate slower growth and possibly easier policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
Higher confidence may bolster a hawkish outlook at the Federal Reserve, reducing expectations for imminent rate cuts and keeping policy tighter for longer. Lower-than-expected confidence could strengthen the case for a more dovish stance, increasing the odds of rate cuts or extended patience if consumer demand falters.
Wednesday 29th October
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held in storage by U.S. firms. Released by the Energy Information Administration, it provides a timely snapshot of supply and demand conditions in the U.S. energy market. Because oil inventories directly influence crude prices, the report is closely monitored by traders, economists, and policymakers as an indicator of production trends, refinery activity, and global demand.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A larger-than-expected crude build could pressure energy stocks and broader equity markets as it signals weaker demand or oversupply in the oil market.
A larger-than-expected draw may lift energy shares and overall risk sentiment, as it implies stronger consumption and economic activity.
US Dollar
A significant inventory draw could support the dollar through higher oil prices and expectations of firmer inflation pressures.
A sharp build may slightly weigh on the dollar as lower energy prices reduce inflation expectations and trade balance support.
US Government Bonds
A big draw (rising oil prices) may push yields higher (prices lower) as inflation expectations rise and growth outlook improves.
A large build (falling oil prices) could lead to lower yields (prices higher) as investors anticipate reduced inflationary pressure and slower demand.
Federal Reserve Policy
A draw indicating rising energy prices may reinforce a cautious or hawkish tone from the Fed if inflation risks increase.
A build suggesting softer demand and lower prices could support a more dovish stance, especially if broader economic indicators point to cooling momentum.
14:00 ET
FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Rate Statement
The FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Statement is released by the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-setting arm of the Federal Reserve. It announces any change to the target range for the federal funds rate and provides the accompanying policy statement, outlining the Fed’s assessment of economic conditions, inflation, employment, and financial stability. This release is one of the most market-moving events globally, as it sets the tone for U.S. monetary policy and influences borrowing costs, risk appetite, and currency valuations.
Summary of Last Report (September Meeting)
Policy Decision: Federal funds rate held steady at 5.25%–5.50%.
Vote: Unanimous decision.
Statement Highlights: The Committee noted that inflation remains elevated but has shown some signs of moderation. Labour market conditions were described as strong, though job gains had slowed.
Economic Assessment: The Fed acknowledged solid economic growth, while emphasizing that it remains “highly attentive to inflation risks.”
Takeaway: The FOMC maintained a data-dependent stance, signalling patience but keeping the door open for further tightening should inflation progress stall.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A more hawkish tone or unexpected rate hike could weigh on equities as tighter policy pressures valuations and borrowing costs.
A dovish hold or softer tone could lift stocks, signalling policy support and improving liquidity conditions.
US Dollar
A hawkish decision—such as a rate hold with an emphasis on persistent inflation—may strengthen the dollar as investors anticipate higher yields for longer.
A dovish outcome or forward guidance hinting at future rate cuts may weaken the dollar as rate differentials narrow.
US Government Bonds
A hawkish statement could push yields higher (prices lower) as markets price in prolonged restrictive policy.
A dovish tilt or acknowledgement of slowing growth may lead yields lower (prices higher) as expectations shift toward easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
A higher-than-expected policy stance (either a hike or firmer guidance) reinforces the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation and suggests rates will stay elevated for an extended period.
A lower-than-expected stance or dovish communication would imply growing concern over economic risks, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts in upcoming meetings.
Thursday 30th October
08:30 ET
US GDP QoQ & Inflation Components Q3 Advance
[Release schedule may be affected by US Government Shutdown]
The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Advance Estimate measures the quarterly change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the U.S. economy. Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), it is the first of three estimates and provides the earliest comprehensive snapshot of economic performance. Alongside GDP, the report includes key inflation components such as the GDP Price Index and Core PCE Prices, both critical indicators for assessing inflation trends and guiding Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Summary of Last Report (Q2 Final)
Headline GDP: +3.0% QoQ annualised, slightly above the prior +2.8% estimate.
Consumer Spending: +2.5%, led by services such as housing, healthcare, and recreation.
Business Investment: +4.1%, supported by equipment and intellectual property products.
Government Spending: +2.2%, driven by state and local outlays.
Net Exports: Added modestly to growth as imports slowed.
Inflation Components: GDP Price Index +2.6%; Core PCE Prices +2.8%.
Takeaway: The data showed solid, broad-based growth with inflation easing but still above the Fed’s 2% target, suggesting resilience amid tight monetary policy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected GDP reading could initially lift equities on signs of economic strength, though persistent inflation pressures may temper enthusiasm if it raises the risk of prolonged high rates.
A weaker-than-expected print may weigh on stocks, reflecting slower growth, but could also spark relief if it supports the case for earlier monetary easing.
US Dollar
Higher-than-expected GDP and inflation components may strengthen the dollar as markets anticipate tighter Fed policy and higher yield differentials.
Lower-than-expected readings could weaken the dollar as investors price in slower growth and a more dovish outlook.
US Government Bonds
A robust GDP and firm inflation data could push Treasury yields higher (prices lower) as traders expect fewer rate cuts or prolonged tightening.
Soft GDP and subdued inflation may lead yields lower (prices higher) as investors anticipate policy easing and weaker demand.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger growth and firmer inflation components may reinforce a hawkish stance, suggesting the Fed will keep rates higher for longer to ensure price stability.
Weaker growth and softer inflation could encourage a more dovish tone, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts if economic momentum continues to fade.
Friday 31st October
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index & Consumer Spending for September
[Release schedule may be affected by US Government Shutdown]
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. It includes both headline and core measures, with the latter excluding volatile food and energy prices to better capture underlying inflation trends. The accompanying Personal Spending data tracks the monthly change in consumer expenditures and provides critical insight into household demand, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Summary of Last Report (August)
Headline PCE Price Index: +0.3% MoM, +2.5% YoY.
Core PCE Price Index: +0.1% MoM, +2.7% YoY.
Personal Spending: +0.2% MoM, following +0.5% in July.
Personal Income: +0.4% MoM.
Key Drivers: Goods prices rose modestly, while services inflation remained sticky—particularly in housing, healthcare, and insurance.
Takeaway: Inflation progress slowed slightly as core pressures persisted, but spending growth remained positive, signaling continued consumer resilience despite high borrowing costs.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher-than-expected PCE or spending figures could weigh on equities as persistent inflation and robust demand imply prolonged tight monetary conditions.
Lower-than-expected data may boost stocks, suggesting easing inflation and potential for earlier rate cuts or policy relief.
US Dollar
A stronger PCE or spending print may lift the dollar as markets anticipate higher yields and a firmer Fed stance.
A softer reading could weaken the dollar as inflation expectations and policy tightening prospects ease.
US Government Bonds
Stronger inflation and spending data may push yields higher (prices lower) as investors price in a longer period of restrictive policy.
Weaker results could lead to lower yields (prices higher) as markets anticipate easing inflation pressures and potential rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
Hotter-than-expected PCE or resilient spending may reinforce the Fed’s hawkish bias, signalling rates will remain higher for longer to control inflation.
Cooler inflation and weaker spending would support a more dovish tilt, increasing confidence that the disinflation trend is intact and policy easing could come into view.
