Morning Juice – US Session Prep (14th November)

Sentiment
Treasuries clawed back early losses during the U.S. session, stabilizing after a sharp gilt-led selloff that erupted when the UK government abandoned a planned income-tax increase, triggering questions about fiscal credibility.
US yields retreated from their highs as equity futures softened alongside European markets, with three Fed speakers slated for the day and US economic data still delayed as the government emerges from its record shutdown.
The backdrop remains dominated by uncertainty around the Fed’s next policy move, keeping liquidity thin and rate volatility elevated.

Risk sentiment deteriorated further into the end of the week, with US equities extending their selloff. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped after a 2% slump in the prior session, reflecting renewed pressure on stretched tech valuations.
The S&P 500 is on track for its first consecutive weekly decline since June, while Bitcoin slid to a six-month low. The move underscores ongoing de-risking as markets recalibrate the likelihood of a near-term rate cut, which has swung sharply in recent days.

UK markets led the turmoil: gilts slumped as the rollback of planned tax hikes amplified concerns over how the government will plug a revenue gap, lifting the 10-year yield 11 bps to 4.54%.
The pound erased its November gains, while the FTSE 100 fell to its lowest level since April.
Adding to the global risk-off tone, fresh data showed China’s economy cooling more than expected at the start of Q4, with an unprecedented drop in investment and softer industrial output weighing on sentiment.

Docket
No noteworthy economic indicators.
US PPI & Retail Sales (previously slated for release today) is not coming out due to the proximity of the Government Shutdown.

Speakers
10:00 ET
ECB’s Lane joins a policy panel at Workshop on International Macroeconomics and Finance ‘Globalization and the economics of the external sector’ in Zurich.
Invitation only.

10:05 ET
Fed’s Schmid speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Kansas City Fed and Dallas Fed’s energy conference
Text: To Be Determined, Q&A: Yes, from the audience.

14:30 ET
Fed’s Logan speaks in a fireside chat at the Dallas and Kansas City Fed’s energy conference
Text: No, Q&A: yes – moderator

15:20 ET
Fed’s Bostic speaks in a moderated discussion at Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management annual conference
Text: no, Q&A: yes – moderator.

Good luck, & have a good weekend!