Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 17th – 21st November (US)

Monday 17th November
08:30 ET
Canadian CPI for October
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services in Canada. It is a key gauge of inflation and is closely watched by the Bank of Canada as part of its mandate to maintain price stability.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release, the Canadian CPI rose 2.0% year-over-year in October, up from 1.6% in September. CPI excluding gasoline increased 2.2%, the same as the previous month. Gasoline prices fell by 4.0% year-over-year in October, compared with a -10.7% drop in September. On a monthly basis (seasonally adjusted), CPI rose 0.3% in October.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the CPI comes in above expectations, global risk sentiment could weaken as traders anticipate prolonged restrictive policy, weighing on equities. Conversely, a lower-than-expected reading may boost risk appetite, supporting stock gains.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected CPI may strengthen the Canadian dollar and slightly pressure the U.S. dollar lower on expectations of tighter BoC policy, whereas a softer CPI could weaken the Canadian dollar and give mild support to the U.S. dollar.
Government Bonds
A higher CPI reading may push global bond yields upward (bond prices lower) as inflation concerns rise and rate-cut expectations fade; a lower CPI print could see yields drop as markets price in weaker inflation and earlier policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
If Canadian inflation surprises to the upside, it reinforces the global inflation narrative, encouraging the Fed to stay cautious about rate cuts; a weaker inflation report would support a softer global inflation backdrop and give the Fed more confidence to consider easing in the coming months.

Tuesday 19th November
09:15 ET
US Industrial Production for October
The Industrial Production (IP) index, published monthly by the Federal Reserve, measures real output from U.S. manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It serves as a key indicator of industrial and overall economic momentum, helping gauge business cycle trends and potential implications for monetary policy.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release, U.S. industrial production declined by 0.3% month-over-month in October, continuing a soft patch in factory activity. The decline was led by weaker manufacturing output, particularly in durable goods, alongside disruptions in aerospace production and slower mining activity. Utility output was little changed, while capacity utilization edged lower to 78.5% from 78.8% in the prior month.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If industrial production comes in above expectations, it could boost equities by signalling stronger economic momentum and healthier demand for goods. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected report may weigh on cyclical and industrial stocks as growth concerns intensify.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected reading tends to support the U.S. dollar by reinforcing confidence in economic resilience and delaying rate-cut expectations. A softer reading may pressure the dollar lower as investors anticipate slower growth and potential easing.
Government Bonds
If the report beats expectations, yields may rise (bond prices fall) as investors anticipate firmer growth and less need for policy support. If it under performs, yields may fall as bond markets price in weaker activity and potential monetary easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust industrial production result would lessen pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, suggesting continued economic strength. A weaker reading would strengthen the argument for a more accommodating policy stance or earlier rate reductions.

Wednesday 19th November
08:30 ET
US Housing Starts for October
[May be delayed by US Government Shutdown]
Housing Starts measures the annualised number of new residential building projects that began construction in the U.S. during a given month. It is a leading indicator of housing market strength and, more broadly, investment and economic momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release, U.S. housing starts fell by approximately 3.1% month-on-month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 1.31 million units in October. Single-family starts dropped more sharply—around 6.9%—while multi-family starts rose. The decline was attributed to higher mortgage rates, storm damage in some regions, and a generally soft housing environment.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If housing starts come in above expectations, equity markets may rally on improved investment and consumer‐housing demand; if they come in below expectations, stocks—especially construction, material and home‐builder shares—may face pressure due to growth concerns.
US Dollar
A stronger‐than‐expected housing starts print could bolster the U.S. dollar by reinforcing the growth outlook and reducing easing expectations; a weaker-than-expected print may weaken the dollar as markets pencil in slower growth and easier policy.
Government Bonds
If starts exceed expectations, Treasury yields may rise (bond prices fall) as investors anticipate firmer economic activity and less need for stimulus; a weaker print could push yields lower as markets lean toward greater slack and policy support.
Federal Reserve Policy
A housing starts result that comes in stronger than expected would reduce pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates or signal that policy can remain steady; a weaker-than-expected print would support the case for a more accommodating stance or early easing.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories report measures the net change in commercial crude oil stocks held in the United States during the prior week. It reflects the balance between crude supply (production + imports) and demand (refinery inputs + exports) and is widely regarded as a key indicator of oil‑market health.

14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are a detailed record of the Committee’s policy‑setting meeting, covering participants’ views on the economy, financial conditions, and future policy options. They are typically released approximately three weeks after each meeting.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release, the minutes revealed that FOMC participants expressed concern about persistent inflation and uneven economic momentum, noted risks from global developments and financial market strain, and remained divided over the timing and scale of future policy adjustments. While most members supported holding the policy rate steady, several participants highlighted that inflation remained above target and labour market strength was stronger than expected, suggesting caution before easing.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the minutes prove more hawkish than expected, equity markets may pull back as investors reassess the timing of rate cuts and brace for tighter policy; conversely, if the minutes are more dovish than expected, stocks could rally as investors anticipate a softer policy stance and supportive conditions for growth.
US Dollar
A hawkish‑tilting minutes release (strong inflation concerns and delayed cuts) may strengthen the U.S. dollar, whereas a more dovish tone (emphasis on slack or earlier easing) could weigh on the dollar.
US Government Bonds
If the minutes show heightened hawkish risks, bond yields may rise (prices fall) as markets price in less accommodation; if the tone is dovish, yields may fall (prices rise) as easing expectations increase.
Federal Reserve Policy
If the minutes lean hawkish, it suggests the Fed may delay cuts and possibly maintain tighter policy for longer; if the minutes lean dovish, it signals the Fed may be willing to ease sooner or more aggressively when conditions allow.

Thursday 20th November
08:30 ET
The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures the net change in employment in the U.S. economy—excluding farm workers, private-household employees, proprietors, nonprofit organisation staff and the military.
Because it covers around 80 % of the workforce, it is closely watched as a barometer of labour-market health, economic momentum and inflation pressures.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release (for August 2025), the U.. economy added only +22,000 jobs—well below consensus expectations and the trend of previous months.
The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%, from 4.2% in the prior month.
Average hourly earnings rose about 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y.
The weak headline number suggests a cooling labour market, with sectors such as manufacturing, mining and financial activities registering employment declines.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected NFP print would likely boost equities, particularly cyclicals and industrials, by reinforcing hopes of still-solid consumer demand and corporate hiring. Conversely, a weak print (or disappointing wage growth) could weigh on growth-sensitive equities, raise fears of slower forward earnings and lead to a more defensive market tone.
US Dollar
If NFP comes in well above expectations, the U.S. dollar may strengthen as markets anticipate firmer growth and potentially delayed rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. On the flip side, a weak report could weaken the dollar as investors lean toward dovish monetary policy and lower growth assumptions.
US Government Bond Yields
A strong labour-market report tends to push yields higher (and bond prices lower) as the likelihood of tighter policy or fewer cuts increases. A disappointing report can have the opposite effect—yields falling as investors price in weaker growth and perhaps earlier easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust NFP reading supports the case for the Fed maintaining rates or delaying cuts, given upside risks to inflation and employment. A soft reading increases pressure on the Fed to consider a looser stance or to signal rate cuts sooner, as it suggests labour slack and weaker underlying inflation risk.

08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the U.S. during the prior week. Continued Jobless Claims reflect the number of people who remain on unemployment benefits beyond the initial filing week. These figures serve as a real‑time gauge of labour‑market stress and emerging unemployment trends.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent week, Initial Jobless Claims stood at 218,000, down from 232,000 in the previous week. Continued Jobless Claims were approximately 1,926,000, indicating that while fewer new claims were filed, a sizable number of workers remain on benefit rolls.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If claims come in lower than expected, equities may rally as the labour market shows resilience; if claims come in higher than expected, stocks could weaken as worries about employment and consumer spending intensify.
US Dollar
A weaker‑than‑expected claims print (higher claims) may weigh on the U.S. dollar as growth concerns mount; a stronger‑than‑expected (lower claims) reading may support the dollar by reinforcing economic strength and delaying easing.
Government Bonds
If claims are lower than expected, bond yields may rise (bond prices fall) as markets price in tighter labour markets and less policy accommodation; if claims are higher than expected, yields may fall (prices rise) as slowing jobs growth raises easing bets.
Federal Reserve Policy
A weaker‑than‑expected claims reading would strengthen the case for an earlier or more aggressive policy easing from the Fed; a stronger‑than‑expected reading would reduce the urgency for the Fed to cut rates and could prolong a tighter policy stance.

10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales for October
Existing Home Sales measures the annualized number of previously occupied residential properties (single‑family homes, townhouses, condominiums and co‑ops) sold in the U.S. during the prior month, and is a key indicator of housing market health, consumer‑wealth effects and broader economic momentum.

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release, U.S. existing home sales rose 3.4% month‑over‑month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million units in October. Year‑on‑year, sales increased 2.9%, marking the first annual gain since July 2021. Inventory of unsold homes ticked up to 1.37 million units, equivalent to a 4.2‑month supply at current sales rates. The median sale price rose to $407,200, up about 4.0% from a year ago.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If existing home sales come in above expectations, equities—especially housing‑related and consumer‑sensitive stocks—may see strength as improved housing demand signals broader consumption; conversely, a weaker‑than‑expected print may weigh on these sectors as housing softness raises concerns over consumer spending.
US Dollar
Stronger‑than‑expected home‑sales data may strengthen the U.S. dollar by pointing to resilient domestic demand and reducing odds of monetary easing; a weaker print may soften the dollar as markets reassess growth risks and tilt toward policy accommodation.
Government Bonds
If the data beat expectations, Treasury yields may rise (bond prices fall) as markets price in stronger domestic activity and inflation risk; if the report disappoints, yields may fall (prices rise) as growth concerns mount and expectations of easier policy increase.
Federal Reserve Policy
A better‑than‑expected housing‑market reading would reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy soon and may support a wait‑and‑see approach; a weaker‑than‑expected report would strengthen the case for a more accommodating stance or earlier rate cuts if broader data also soften.

Friday 21st November
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI November Prelim
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly survey-based measure of activity in the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors. It reflects responses from purchasing managers covering new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories in manufacturing, and output, new business, and employment in services. Readings above 50 indicate expansion compared with the prior month, while readings below 50 indicate contraction.

Summary of Last Report
In October, the manufacturing PMI came in below 50, indicating contraction, while the services PMI remained in expansion territory. The composite index showed modest overall growth, supported by stronger services activity. New orders in services rose, while manufacturing backlogs and output remained soft, signalling mixed momentum across the economy.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the PMI readings come in above expectations, equities—especially industrial and services‑related stocks—may rise on stronger business momentum; if they come in below expectations, stocks may fall as concerns about slowing growth intensify.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected PMI could support the U.S. dollar by reinforcing growth resilience and reducing near-term easing expectations; a weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on the dollar as markets anticipate slower growth and increased accommodation.
Government Bonds
If the PMIs beat expectations, Treasury yields may rise (bond prices fall) as investors price in firmer growth and reduced slack; if the readings disappoint, yields may fall (prices rise) due to expectations of weaker growth and potential policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger-than-expected PMI results would reduce pressure on the Fed to ease policy in the near term; weaker-than-expected results would strengthen the case for a more accommodating stance or earlier rate cuts.

10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers monthly report measures U.S. household attitudes toward their finances, business conditions and buying plans (the Consumer Sentiment component) as well as their expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and over a longer horizon (the Inflation Expectations component).

Summary of Last Report
In the most recent release, the overall Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 55.4, down from 58.0 in the prior month. Year‑ahead inflation expectations edged down to 4.6%, while longer‑term (five‑year) inflation expectations held at 3.7%. Consumers signalled more caution about their financial outlook and business conditions, with inflation still a top concern.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If sentiment and inflation expectations are more positive than expected (sentiment higher, inflation expectations lower), equities may rally on improving consumer confidence and reduced inflation risk; if sentiment and inflation expectations are worse than expected (sentiment lower, inflation expectations higher), stocks may suffer from concerns about weaker consumer spending and higher cost pressures.
US Dollar
Stronger‑than‑expected sentiment and lower inflation expectations tend to weaken the U.S. dollar as expectations for looser policy rise; weaker sentiment and higher inflation expectations are likely to strengthen the dollar as markets anticipate tighter monetary policy.
US Government Bonds
If sentiment and inflation expectations come in better than expected, bond yields may rise (prices fall) as markets discard easing scenarios and anticipate tighter policy; if the readings disappoint, yields may fall (prices rise) as investors lean toward more accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
If household sentiment is stronger and inflation expectations lower than expected, the Federal Reserve may feel less urgency to ease and may keep rates higher for longer; if the survey shows weaker sentiment and elevated inflation expectations, the Fed may face increased pressure to move toward more accommodating policy or sooner‑than‑anticipated rate cuts.