Morning Juice – US Session Prep (17th November)

Sentiment
The dollar edged up, supported as traders wait for delayed US eco data to be released this week, including the September NFP report. Treasuries moved higher, even as traders see less than a 50-50 odds that the Fed will cut interest rates next month.

US equity futures began the week higher alongside global tech stocks as investors looked ahead to earnings from Nvidia.

The 10-year Treasury yield declined by 3 BPS to 4.12%. The swaps market is wagering a 41% chance of a December easing, down from as much as 62% last week.

China is intensifying its confrontation with Japan over PM Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan, with state media threatening major countermeasures after China’s travel warnings raised the spectre of economic retribution.

Docket
08:30 ET
Canadian CPI for October
YoY – Forecast: 2.1% | Prior: 2.4% | Range: 2.2% / 2%
MoM – Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: 0.1% | Range: 0.3% / 0.1%

Speakers
09:00 ET
Fed’s Williams gives welcoming remarks at 2025 Governance and Culture Reform Conference 33 Liberty Street. New York.
Text and Q&A are not expected.

09:30 ET
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks on a moderated discussion on economic outlook and monetary policy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Text: Yes, Q&A: Yes, from moderator.

09:45 ET
ECB’s Lane gives a lecture on monetary policy at the University of Galway, Ireland.

11:00 ET
ECB’s Cipollone appears at the hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) to discuss the latest developments in the digital euro project.

13:00 ET
Fed’s Kashkari moderates a fireside chat with Christophe Beck, CEO of Ecolab.
Text: no: Q&A: Kashkari moderating.

ECB’s Makhlouf Speaks

14:00 ET
Trump meets with the White House Task Force on the FIFA World Cup

15:35 ET
Fed’s Waller speaks on economic outlook at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Dinner.
Text: Yes; Q&A: Yes, from moderator and audience.

Good luck!