Morning Juice – US Session Prep (18th November)

Sentiment
The dollar was little changed, staying near a 1-week high as investors prepared for the delayed release of NFP later in the week. Treasuries rose ahead of speeches by Fed officials later in the day.

Earnings reports from Nvidia and Walmart due Wednesday are also in focus as they would shed light on both the AI boom and the resilience of the US consumer market.

The 10-Yr Treasury yield slips 4 BPS to 4.1% while the 2-Yr yield declined by the same amount to 3.57%. Traders see a 42% chance that the Fed will deliver a 25 BPS cut next month, compared with as little as 36% on Monday.

Docket
08:15 ET
US Weekly ADP Employment Change
Prior: 11.25K

10:00 ET
US Factory Orders for August
Forecast: 1.4% | Prior: -1.3% | Range: 2.9% / 0.2%

Speakers
10:30 ET
Fed’s Barr speaks on bank supervision at Kogod School of Business, Alan Meitzer Speaker Series at American University.
Text: Yes Q&A: Yes, from moderator and audience

11:00 ET
Trump meets with Saudi Crown Prince & PM.
(All day)

Fed’s Barkin speaks on the economic outlook at the Top of Virginia Regional Chamber at Shenandoah University
Text: yes; Q&A: yes, audience.

Trump meets Saudi Crown Prince at White House

11:45 ET
Trump participates in a Bilateral Meeting with Saudi Crown Prince

12:00 ET
BoE’s Dhingra speaks at the University of Sheffield on “unpacking the puzzle of income growth and weak consumption in the UK.”

Good luck!