Morning Juice – US Session Prep (19th November)

Sentiment
The dollar rose as traders awaited Nvidia earnings, in what will be a pivotal test for big tech. Treasuries were little changed as investors looked ahead to minutes from the Fed, along with speeches by policymakers, including Miran and Barkin, for clues on the path of rates.

USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 155.99, its highest since January 27th, after Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said she did not specifically discuss FX with BoJ Gov. Ueda during a meeting earlier in the day, easing some speculation that the government is preparing to intervene to support a weakening yen.

The 10-Yr yield edged up 1 BPS to 4.12%. The swaps market indicates a 42% possibility that the Fed will deliver a 25 BPS cut next month, little changed from Tuesday.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Trade Balance for August
Forecast: -$60.65B | Prior: -$78.3B | Range: -$54.5B / -$85b

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -1.7M | Prior: 6.413M | Range: 4.811M / -4.92M

13:00 ET
US sells $16 bln 20-Year Bonds

14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes

Speakers
10:00 ET
Fed’s Miran will deliver prepared remarks on the U.S. financial regulatory framework at the Bank Policy Institute. Following his prepared remarks, Governor Miran will join BPI President and CEO Greg Baer for a fireside chat exploring recent regulatory developments and policy priorities heading into the coming year.
Text: Yes Q&A: Yes, from moderator.

12:00 ET
Trump speaks at US-Saudi Investment Forum

12:45 ET
Richmond Fed President repeats Nov. 18 speech on the economic outlook at the University of Richmond Jepson Alumni Center, Q&A: yes, audience.

BoC’s Deputy Governor Vincent speaks

14:00 ET
Fed’s Williams delivers welcome remarks at event “Making Missing Markets: Connecting Communities and Capital”. No Text or Q&A is expected.

Earnings
16:20 ET
Nvidia Q3 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS: $1.18
Est. Rev: $54.59B

Good luck!