Morning Juice – US Session Prep (20th November)

Sentiment
The dollar traded in a narrow range ahead of the September NFP data, which will provide traders a steer on the health of the US labor market after the data scarcity during the government shutdown. 1-month implied volatility in the USD/JPY rallied the most since April on a 2-day basis, rising Thursday by 83 BPS to 16.68%, the highest level in 4 months.

Japanese government bonds came under pressure amid worries over PM Takaichi’s spending plans, which have also weighed upon the yen and sent it to a 10-month low versus the dollar.

Docket
8:30 ET
US Nonfarm Payrolls for September
Forecast: 51K | Prior: 22K | Range: 105K / -20K
US Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.3% | Prior: 4.3% | Range: 4.4% / 4.2%
US Average Earnings YoY
Forecast: 3.7% | Prior: 3.7% | Range: 3.8% / 3.4%
US Private Payrolls 
Forecast: 65k | Prior: 38k | Range: 125k / 35k
US Average Workweek Hours
Forecast: 34.2 | Prior: 34.2 | Range: 34.3 / 34.2
US Average Earnings MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3% | Range: 0.4% / 0.1%

Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 227K | Range: 238K / 215K
US Continued Jobless Claims
Forecast: 1.950M | Range: 1.972M / 1.912M

10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales
Forecast: 4.08M | Prior: 4.06M | Range: 4.15M / 4M

12:00 ET
US sells $19 bln 10-Year TIPS

Speakers
8:45 ET
Fed’s Hammack gives opening remarks at the 2025 Financial Stability Conference Text: Yes; Q&A: Yes; Livestream: Yes

09:30 ET
Fed’s Barr speaks on AI at FinRegLab AI Symposium. No text. Q&A expected

11:00 ET
Fed’s Cook attends an event on financial stability at Georgetown University. Text: Yes; Q&A: Yes, from moderator and audience

13:00 ET
WH Press Sec. Leavitt speaks

13:30 ET
BoE’s Dhingra Speaks

13:40 ET
Fed’s Goolsbee speaks in moderated discussion at CFA Society annual lunch. No text. Q&A expected

16:00 ET
BoE’s Mann speaks