Morning Juice – US Session Prep

Morning, Traders!
It is Monday the 4th of November, here are some things to look out for today.

Sentiment
The dollar fell and US Treasuries rose as investors reversed their bets on Donald Trump winning the presidential election after weekend polls showed Harris gaining ground.

The dollar index fell the most in more than a month, while the Mexican peso, which fell in the aftermath of Trump’s 2016 victory, outperformed 16 major currencies. US stock futures rose.

An ABC News and Ipsos poll showed Harris with a 49%-46% national lead over Trump in the race for the White House, while a New York Times/Siena survey released Sunday showed the Democratic nominee ahead in five of seven swing states.

A Des Moines Register poll that showed Harris leading in Iowa – a state Trump has won in both of his previous contests – was likely an outlier, but it did highlight the race’s ever-changing dynamics. Nonetheless, Harris’ lead in all of the surveys was within the margin of error, and an NBC News poll released Sunday showed the race tied 49%-49%.

In recent weeks, the dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since July, as investors increased their bets on Trump’s second term.
The argument goes that his support for looser fiscal policy and steep tariffs will deepen the federal deficit and fuel inflation, pushing interest rates higher to the detriment of the dollar and bond yields

Docket
10:00 ET
US Factory Orders MoM for September
Median Forecast: -0.5% | Prior: -0.2% | Range: -0.1% / -0.9%

11:30 ET
US sells $81 bln 3-Month Bills
US sells $72 bln 6-Month Bills

13:00 ET
US sells $58 bln 3-Year Notes

Good luck!